Welcome to the latest edition of Defense Tech and Acquisition. We have many exciting stories of the services embracing novel approaches to rapidly prototype and experiment with novel technologies, approaches, and organizations to rapidly iterate on warfighting capabilities. There continues to be investment in non-traditional companies to regrow our industrial base. Some notable programs are hitting new milestones to advance state of the art solutions to drive a competitive advantage.
Expanding the Contractor and Industrial Bases
RADM Seiko Okano and CAPT Andy Biehn
PEO Integrated Warfare Systems delivers the sensors that detect threats and targets, the combat systems that close the fire-control loop, and the weapons that engage the enemy. Success comes from seamlessly integrating those systems.
The Black Sea and Red Sea conflicts have shown the effects on war at sea of rapid innovation—long-range missiles, unmanned surface vehicles, and drone swarms. Improving warfighting capability through innovation is critical.
The “Big 5” defense companies, while peerless in developing military platforms such as tanks, ships, and missiles, are not the nation’s leading innovators when it comes to sharing information across systems.
The Big 5 refers to: Lockheed Martin, General Dynamics, Raytheon, Northrop Grumman, and Boeing.
The information revolution has instead occurred in the civilian sector, driven by companies outside the defense ecosystem who often perceive barriers to doing business with DoD.
Consolidation that occurred in the 90s continues to affect competition, especially for large contracts.
Half of defense dollar obligations are awarded via sole-source procurement, even though 90% of individual contract actions are competed, meaning that the majority of competition occurs for smaller contracts.
Decreased competition leads to higher costs and less innovation.
PEO IWS is working across our portfolio to grow the weapon-system industrial base, drive competition, and connect the expertise of the traditional defense industry with the innovation and agility of commercial technology developers.
As part of our efforts to adopt best software and hardware development practices, PEO IWS established government-operated hardware and software factories (the Forge and the Foundry) that enable nontraditional companies to participate in development of combat system and other software capabilities.
Thirty-three companies—many of them small businesses—have done so, whereas previously all that work was conducted by a single prime contractor.
Owning the technical baseline and reducing barriers to entry for new companies will result in a more diverse defense industrial base poised to compete and deliver innovation affordably.
With the ability (and appropriate authorities and funding) to implement and field software changes rapidly, the PEO can work closely with operational commands and respond to their near-term requirements, without the long Pentagon programming and budgeting process required for major platforms
Our Take: We wholeheartedly support PEO IWS efforts. RADM Okano has been a leading innovator in DoD, has the right vision and is actively implementing it. One caution we give to offices that are employing an “Owning the Technical Baseline” approach is to make sure that you have the right level of technical talent in the program to execute that effectively. There are non-traditional contractors that bring top talent and offer cutting-edge commercial solutions that may not warrant the same level of oversight as some legacy efforts may have needed…especially if the contract structure is more reliant on demonstrations and hitting technical milestones for payment.
Pentagon Looks Beyond Primes for Cheaper Drones
The Pentagon has picked four non-traditional defense contractors to develop drones that can be produced en masse and “on-call,” acknowledging that industry giants might not be up to providing the relatively inexpensive uncrewed systems that are looming larger in modern war.
“While the Armament Directorate remains committed to our highly-capable legacy products, we have become convinced that widening the aperture to include more non-traditional aerospace companies offers the best chance at accomplishing our cost-per-unit goals, project timeline, and production quantity goals.” Cassie Johnson, ETV PM
The companies—Anduril Industries, Integrated Solutions for Systems, Leidos Dynetics, and Zone 5 Technologies—beat out more than 100 other applicants to develop an “enterprise test vehicle” that can be built quickly and cheaply.
The open-architecture drone is to fly at least 500 nautical miles, deliver a kinetic payload, and use commercially-available subsystems.
The Pentagon’s current way of building drones is slowed down by exquisite components and labor-intensive manufacturing processes.
Vendors are incorporating COTS components wherever possible to mitigate supply chain bottlenecks and to keep costs low.
Vendors will also leverage modern design for manufacturing approaches, ensuring air vehicles are not over-engineered for their intended mission, minimize use of expensive materials
Enable on-call high-rate production that is not possible with more exquisite counterparts.
At least one of the defense primes has publicly acknowledged that it won’t compete to build low-cost, non-survivable drones.
“This award is a great example of how we are partnered closely with the Air Force to drive innovation for the warfighter, with the focus, speed, and scale necessary to achieve strategic impact. Together, we are harnessing the power of commercial technology to meet a critical operational need for straightforward, affordable, and quickly scalable autonomous systems in the air.” Doug Beck
Related DoD Announcement: Four Companies Selected To Support the U.S. Air Force and Defense Innovation Unit’s Enterprise Test Vehicle (ETV) Project
Related Article: DIU, Air Force pick four firms to prototype modular testing drone
Our Take: There is so much to love about this effort! Mass producing low cost drones instead of over-engineering exquisite systems via complex processes. Harnessing non-traditional and traditional defense companies. Harnessing COTS and modern manufacturing designs to enable production at scale. THIS is what Replicator should be.
Asymmetric War: The Founder’s Secret Weapon
As a founder or startup leader, your goal is to win at a game that matters. Not the little battles along the way, but the war that drives impact at massive scale.
At my company Hermeus, the game we are playing is an ambitious endeavor to do what even the great Kelly Johnson couldn’t: deliver autonomous Mach 5 airplanes to DoD and eventually Mach 5 commercial passenger aircraft to shrink the world.
The challenges we’ve faced building the company over the past five years have formed how I think about strategy more than any experience in my life. The core kernel of our plan to win has become as clear as day to me: asymmetry.
Asymmetry is an outsized, unmatched, decisive advantage in the context of a specific game.
In defense and national security, asymmetry allows a country to deter conflict, and, when it must fight, win quickly.
In tech and business, asymmetry allows insurgent startups to leverage their natural advantages to disrupt incumbents, create revolutionary products, and build massively valuable companies along the way, even when the odds are massively stacked against them.
Asymmetry is such a simple, obvious idea. But delivering it is another story, because it’s not the natural state of the world — nature abhors a vacuum.
Developing asymmetry means augmenting your strengths, exploiting your competition’s weaknesses, and focusing on high-leverage knobs.
Maintaining it requires an immense effort to continuously advance your capabilities, especially when you’re miles ahead of your competition.
All this is difficult, but not impossible, and while there’s no one-size-fits-all approach for creating asymmetries, there are useful principles and tactics that can be applied.
Understand the physics of the system, then hack it.
Counter asymmetries in your raise.
The incumbent’s sclerotic business model is your startup’s asymmetry.
The founder’s asymmetry — roll a hard six
Once you have the advantage, go even faster
Our Take: Recommend reading this entire piece. It’s not that long but it’s very inspirational and AJ brilliantly weaves in defense concepts as it relates to business. In fairness, we acknowledge that we are big fans of his - it’s hard not to admire a founder who picked what might be the toughest challenge in tech to solve next to cold fusion and time travel.
The New Vanguard of Defense Technology: 150 Companies Building the Future Frontline
In the past year, the Overton window for investing in defense technology has rapidly closed, with VCs and founders funneling their resources toward building in the national interest.
VC investment in defense technology has charted a steadfast upward trajectory, with specialized funds emerging such as Andreessen Horowitz’s American Dynamism, Shield Capital, and Harpoon Ventures, among others.
While the barriers to access remain high, the deluge of capital has increased the sector’s viability, with several successful pure-play defense decacorns emerging.
Once incentivized by the allure of traditional B2B or consumer products, founders have increasingly gravitated towards defense, precipitating a proliferation of nascent early-stage ventures.
The following is a list of ~150 US defense technology companies that were:
Founded in the last decade
Domiciled in the US
Venture-backed
US Government or defense contractors as the primary customer
Our Take: There are too many to list here and we don’t pick favorites but check out the promising companies that are investing in truly incredible tech to solve military problems and advance our economy in new and interesting ways.
13% of VC firms aren’t planning to raise another fund
13% of venture GPs don’t plan to raise another fund as the LP pullback spoils fundraising efforts, according to PitchBook’s semiannual VC Tech Survey. That’s double the rate in H1 2023
DOD’s GigEagle Uses AI to Solve Tech Talent Challenges
An AFRL platform uses cloud-based AI to help bridge gaps in short-term talent and recruiting issues.
Earlier this year, GigEagle Agile Talent Ecosystem Initiative Director BGen Michael McGinley got a call from a joint program leader who was looking for a software developer to fill a temporary position.
Using GigEagle, the DoD’s first AI-driven joint talent marketplace designed to match reservists, and others with short-term DOD assignments, McGinley was able to identify 197 candidates within seconds, a task that used to take weeks or months.
The initiative is the product of a partnership between Eightfold AI, Carahsoft Technology, and DIU. Currently in the prototype stage, there are about 600 users on the platform and has proven to be successful.
GigEagle is a cloud-based, real-time talent reservist marketplace that connects demand and supply sides through AI-driven matching and mobile authentication.
The platform allows users to access talent from other organizations and expand their skill sets. Reservists upload their resumes in their profile, giving them a proactive approach to finding positions.
Our Take: We’re huge fans of GigEagle and BGen Michael McGinley’s tireless efforts in this space to leverage top talent across the DoD. There is nothing more powerful than matching the right people with the right jobs to apply their talents and harness their excitement and engagement for the mission.
Defense Tech
DIU Issues First Awards Under Its Novel Responsive Space Delivery Project
The ability to rapidly re-constitute space-based capabilities or re-supply time-sensitive cargo at precise locations on-orbit or terrestrially is a critical but presently under-developed capability. DIU is leveraging commercial solutions for responsive delivery of cargo to, through, and from space.
DIU launched the Novel Responsive Space Delivery (NRSD) project to prototype commercial solutions that enable responsive and precise point-to-point delivery to orbit, between vehicles in orbit, and to precisely to Earth via novel reentry vehicles and methods.
Collectively, the NRSD project will deliver a diverse set of solutions to contested logistics problems, sustaining competitive advantage for deployed terrestrial and space forces.
"Responsive and reliable logistics and sustainment lines of communication are essential to the Warfighter. By prototyping commercial solutions for the delivery of cargo and other supplies to, through, and from space, we will equip the Joint Force with new methods for sustainment that directly address this need and provide a unique competitive advantage, particularly in instances in which conventional logistics pathways on Earth and in space are contested.” Austin Baker, DIU Space Portfolio Deputy Director
DIU and Army To Prototype Advanced Nuclear Power for Military Installations
DIU and the Army are soliciting solutions for advanced nuclear power to expand installation resilience.
They partnered to quickly access and ramp nuclear micro-reactor energy commercial capabilities that can be scaled up for deployment at Defense installations.
DIU’s CSO is a market-based approach that leverages OT authority to tap into innovative private industrial investments and manufacturing capacity to build new military-specific prototypes.
“Modular advanced nuclear power is a joint and global need. DIU Energy’s effort will help bolster and protect critical energy infrastructure, by providing a supply of carbon-free energy for emerging, future mission and facility needs within the DoD, allowing for installation energy resilience.” Dr. Andrew Higier, DIU Energy Portfolio Director
CYBERCOM Wants to Unify Army and Air Force Software Factories Under JCWA, Plans for New PEO
Using its new acquisition authorities, CYBERCOM announced Wednesday its plans to consolidate at least some of the Army and Air Force’s software factories within the Joint Cyber Warfighting Architecture (JCWA) and create an interservice PEO overseeing them.
“JCWA is made up of disparate program shops, not really well synchronized together. Within the next six months, these six components will play around, we’ll be a little bit better, interoperable in these specific areas.” Khoi Nguyen, CYBERCOM Acq Exec/J9
The six programs within JCWA are:
Air Force’s Joint Cyber Command and Control
Army’s Joint Common Access Program (JCAP)
CYBERCOM’s sensors
Joint Development Environment — where cyber tools are rapidly developed — run by the Army, but the majority of the program office is overseen by CYBERCOM .
The six program offices each have their own DevSecOps platforms, which CYBERCOM plans to consolidate to reduce both duplication of effort and cybersecurity vulnerabilities that come with redundant platforms.
Another redundancy CYBERCOM wants to eliminate is the numerous individual technologies that each program office uses to do its work. Instead, he wants them using the same technology stack from the physical computers all the way to the software.
This common platform should be versatile enough that it can be deployed in different environments.
We can deploy within the cloud, we can deploy on an edge processing or we can deploy to our hunt kit, and so on with a common platform. Then the variances will be based on the application set that are delivered on top of that.
John Sherman Leaving DoD CIO Role to Texas A&M University
John Sherman has been selected as the next Dean of the Bush School of Government and Public Service at his alma mater Texas A&M University. He will depart DoD at the end of the month to take on this new challenge. He drove initiatives including the Joint Warfighting Cloud Capability, Zero Trust cybersecurity strategy, dynamic spectrum sharing, and Cyber Workforce Management program.
Our Take: Thank you John Sherman for your service as DoD and IC CIO.
We Need to Get into a Faster Clip on Hypersonics Testing
“With other missile programs you may launch dozens of dozens of weapons. But on the hypersonic side, we just have not been able to do that." Lt. Gen. Heath Collins, MDA Director
Development of hypersonic missiles and tools to defeat them, is a top modernization priority in the DoD, especially as adversaries like China and Russia mature their own versions of the technology.
The weapons are able to reach speeds greater than Mach 5 and are highly maneuverable in-flight, making them difficult for traditional air defense systems to intercept them.
The Air Force, Navy and Army each have ongoing hypersonics programs, and a number of other efforts are in the works at the DARPA and other DOD organizations to advance the technology.
However, a limited amount of adequate testing infrastructure has hindered overall development.
Although the Pentagon operates a handful of ranges to test missiles, only one, located at Holloman AFB, NM, is long enough — over 50,000 feet — to test hypersonic weapons at speeds of Mach 5 or higher.
There have been several new entrants into the hypersonics industrial base recently, which has helped the department improve its ability to test the missiles
In the near term, MDA is looking at how non-traditional defense contractors can provide targets for hypersonic weapons testing at a low cost.
“There is the commercial and venture capital space that are bringing hypersonic capabilities to bear, which is exciting because the costs of targets is an order of magnitude lower.” Lt. Gen. Heath Collins,
Open DAGIR: DoD Plans July Industry Day, Experiments for New CJADC2 Command Apps
Instead of a single mega-program run by a single contractor, the Pentagon wants its nascent global battle network, called CJADC2, to evolve into a rapidly adaptive ecosystem, where dozens of different applications bloom and die as military needs arise and change.
So, just after awarding almost a half-billion dollars to Palantir Technologies to expand its Maven Smart System tenfold, the Chief Digital & AI Office (CDAO) announced a new initiative, Open DAGIR, to open the doors to other software developers.
While Palantir’s Maven will act as the de facto backbone for the global system, its “open architecture” design is meant to allow other companies’ code to plug in, quickly, with a minimum of integration work.
That plug-and-play approach, in turn, should allow the operational CCMDs around the globe to commission custom apps as needed from any vendor.
Last year, CDAO and the CCMDs used quarterly Global Information Dominance Experiments (GIDE) to speed-run development of a “Minimum Viable Capability” for CJADC2. Now, as the GIDE experiments continue, CDAO is looking to build beyond that minimum.
Open DAGIR — short for “Open Data and Applications Government-owned Interoperable Repositories” — involves three interdependent but distinct layers, the official explained:
Data Infrastructure: Data is the foundation for any functioning analytics or AI. The government will retain ownership and control of the data, but Palantir will build and operate the software “stack” required to manage it day-to-day - a Government Owned, Contractor Operated (GOCO) model. However, third-party contractors will be able to access the Palantir-managed data as needed to make their software work.
Mature Applications: This layer is for software that has proven stable, functional, and cybersecure, and which the government decides to use on a large scale for a long time. Such apps will be purchased on an “enterprise license” basis, meaning CDAO will buy the rights for them to be used by an entire organization, like a CCMD or even the whole DoD.
Competitive Environment: Even the most mature and regularly updated software program can’t meet all needs, however. That’s why the final layer of CDAO’s new approach is a competitive environment where CCMDs can issue new requirements, interested software developers of all sizes can compete to meet them, and the winning products can be fielded rapidly, using OT contracts.
By using different types of contracts, and switching a given piece of software from one type to another as needed, CDAO should be able to exploit competition among companies to rapidly add new capabilities at the top layer — without having to change its foundation-layer contractor and laboriously rebuild everything from the bottom-up for every update.
“Open DAGIR ensures the DoD can leverage the innovative solutions from the world-class software developers in both the traditional and nontraditional industrial base. It allows us to ensure enduring access to GOCO tech stacks and infrastructure and retain data rights while also maximizing the ability of other companies to develop applications with government data.” Dr. Radha Plumb, CDAO
Eric Schmidt Secretly Testing AI Military Drones In Silicon Valley Suburb
With a widening roster of high profile talent poached from Apple, SpaceX and Google, the former Google CEO is piloting his drones in Menlo Park and Ukraine.
Last year, billionaire technologist Eric Schmidt quietly founded a secretive military drone company, White Stork. Now, the stealth startup has begun testing its AI-guided aircraft, both at the Menlo Park headquarters of Schmidt’s family office Hillspire and on the frontlines of the war in Ukraine.
After Forbes revealed the venture in January, Schmidt quietly renamed it and accelerated its development, which sources in a position to know said involves using AI to help drones home in on battlefield targets.
The team has been testing drone prototypes in Kyiv with the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense and is soliciting their feedback.
The venture’s operations are further obfuscated by a constellation of LLCs and associated companies.
White Stork’s drone development has been aided by a steady stream of notable hires. Over the past several months, White Stork has poached at least a dozen employees from Apple, SpaceX, Google, federal government agencies and the billionaire’s own philanthropic organization, Schmidt Futures.
Sebastian Thrun, creator of Google’s moonshot lab X
Hendrik Dahlkamp, a former Apple machine learning manager and graduate of Thrun’s Stanford University robotics lab.
A former principal space lasers engineer at SpaceX
Damon Vander Lind.
Mark Stonich, former Google VP of sourcing and supply chain sustainability
Will Roper, founder of the Schmidt-backed defense startup Istari Digital and a member of the DoD’s Defense Innovation Board.
Shortly after Forbes broke the news of his plans for White Stork, the startup rechristened itself Project Eagle.
Dumb Drones Get Smart: Navigation Tech Lets UAVs Fly Blind
Canadian firm has developed a highly cost-effective inertial optical system that equals the accuracy of navigational sensors used in the aircraft sector.
The circuits developed by One Silicon Chip Photonics (OSCP) offer highly accurate navigation even without GPS signals.
Because they are entirely mechanical, the circuits are ten times more precise than the Micro-Electro-Mechanical Systems Inertial Measurement Units (MEMS IMUs) commonly used in commercial applications.
Acquisition Innovation and Small Business Participation in Federal Procurement
OMB’s Chief Acquisition Officer’s Council and OFPP issued a memo and report highlighting the Periodic Table of Acquisition Innovations, workforce training, and development actions.
This report discusses the innovative techniques and technologies agencies are using to promote acquisition stewardship and the steps that have been taken to create an innovation friendly culture. It also provides a roadmap for the scaling of acquisition innovation.
Our Take: While this primarily focuses on the civilian agencies procurement agencies, including the great work of DHS’ Procurement Innovation Lab (PIL), there are techniques that are leveraged by DoD acquisition professionals. Recommend OFPP and the CAOC move away from 70-page PDF reports on innovation to more dynamic websites for acquisition professionals and industry to navigate, iterate, and scale.
DARPA
DARPA project uses AI to flag space weapons, spy satellites
As more governments and commercial companies look to proliferated satellite constellations for increased capacity, some defense experts are concerned that these large fleets could be providing cover for space weapons or spy satellites.
DARPA aims to use AI to shine a light on those potentially nefarious capabilities.
In 2023, DARPA selected Slingshot Aerospace to create an AI system that identifies anomalous satellites within these large constellations.
The company unveiled its model, Agatha, announcing that it had demonstrated the ability to detect outlier satellites among operational constellations.
The Chinese government has announced plans to launch two mega-constellations in the coming years comprised of tens of thousands of satellites, a bid to rival Elon Musk’s SpaceX, whose network of Starlink communication satellites includes more than 6,000 operational spacecraft.
The system incorporates a method known as inverse reinforcement learning. The technique allows Agatha to not only recognize and track anomalous spacecraft maneuvers or other activity but to assign motivation to those actions.
“Identifying malfunctioning or potentially nefarious objects and their objectives within large satellite constellations is a complex challenge that required us to reach beyond traditional approaches and develop a novel and scalable AI algorithm. Our Agatha model has also proven its ability to deliver high-quality insights that provide ‘explainability’ or context for why specific objects were flagged.” Dylan Kesler, Director of Data Science and AI.
DARPA Sees Automated Tools Helping Streamline Software Certification
DARPA is working to push tools it’s developing to automatically prove that software is secure out to the commercial sector and help companies overcome the cumbersome Pentagon verification process.
“One of the things that we hear from the warfighter is we’ll have a technology solution that is available, but getting it through that process to have the ATO and be able to get it through the approval process is very laborious. I will add, for good reason, because in the past these DOD steps have shown improvement to generate a higher quality solution.” Benjamin Bishop, Deputy Director of Transition
While humans doing math can prove software works as it’s designed, there are tools that can look at file metadata, which contains proof that the software is secure, and automatically verify its safety.
DARPA’s Automated Rapid Certification of Software (ARCOS) program, is working on developing that capability.
The goal of the program is to automate the evaluation of software assurance evidence to enable certifiers to determine rapidly that system risk is acceptable.
DOD will need to provide incentive for commercial partners to use it.
They have seen big tech or large tech companies are embracing some of these tools and they’re moving out with it because they see the value in these methods.
Beyond Blackjack: DARPA Planning New X-plane to Give Ship COs Local ISR Assets
DARPA is hoping its new ANCILLARY program will provide Navy ship commanders with ISR and targeting assets under “local” control, with capabilities the legacy RQ-21 Blackjack drone never had.
The PM said all six companies remaining in the program are narrowing in on a similar design incorporating folding wings.
DARPA late last month announced it had selected six companies to advance in its ANCILLARY program, which aims to design a vertical-take-off-and-landing unmanned aerial system capable of operating from a ship deck with minimal sailors required to use it.
It is important that the experimental aircraft remain within group three (no larger than 330 pounds), because Navy policy dictates that groups four and five UAS be piloted by trained naval aviators.
To save on costs and crewing requirements, DARPA wants its new UAS to be operated by no more than two sailors with minimal training, compared to RQ-21 which required up to nine sailors for launch and recovery.
The ANCILLARY program aims to keep associated infrastructure to an absolute minimum to maximize how many drones can be stored on a ship.
The companies selected for the next phase of the program include AeroVironment, Griffon Aerospace, Karem Aircraft, Method Aeronautics, Northrop Grumman, and Sikorsky.
“There’s a long-standing kind of need for what we call organic, long-range ISR-T — so organic to the ship. Whereas more strategic assets like an MQ-4 Triton, or even satellites… the local commander on a ship doesn’t really have control of those. And so, he can’t ensure that his mission will get done because there’s not enough of those assets to go around,” Steve Komadina, Program Manager
Army
Army Chief Lays Out What He Wants From Industry for C2 Next
C2NG is the Army’s joint effort with industry to build a “data-centric” command and control system facilitated through network transport.
GEN George signed off on new requirements for Next Generation C2 (NGC2), highlighting the new program’s desired functionalities and how industry can contribute to the program.
Key attributes include: a consolidated network architecture, servicemembers using commercial mobile devices provided by the Army, and collaboration throughout the service.
But most of all, looking to make things as easy as possible for forces in the field.
NGC2 is the Army’s joint effort with industry to build a “data-centric” C2 system facilitated through network transport. The goal is to reinvent the service’s enterprise data architecture and revamp its operational software framework.
Basically, the program is designed to create one common data access layer.
NGC2 is a whole new architecture whereas C2 Fix is designed to revitalize the Army’s current network infrastructure.
In the past, it’s been mission command systems that are created and developed in silos, and then we have to kind of stitch the data together. What we’re trying to do now is develop something that’s going to be flat across the board, an open and standard architecture.
NGC2 is still in the early experimental stage, but the project is moving forward with a sense of urgency. The first experimental exercise has been completed, and the next one will be in September at NetModx, where the program’s susceptibility to hacking and jamming will be tested.
We want to make sure we’re doing this the right way. Starting small starting at that data layer and working are working working outwards.
The Army wants industry to help with a service model approach, eschewing the need to regularly buy new hardware in favor of a model that leases some of the hardware. Most importantly is the need for industry partners that can help develop a user interface that allows a commander to visualize the data — something at the core of C2 Next.
Our Take: Key themes of goodness: common layers, starting small, experimenting with soldiers then scaling, and working closely with industry partners.
Edge Compute-as-a-Service? The Army is Curious
The Army is planning on engaging with industry regarding the prospect of computing-as-a-service.
“Where we’re looking next with industry is a compute-as-a-service model. Especially when you look at how fast industry moves in terms of size, in terms of compute power, we want to get to when you employ you get the best, smallest, fastest, easiest way to employ compute.” Mark Kitz, PEO C3T
After the Army’s network portfolio has dipped its toe in the water on two as-as-service models, it could be settings its sights next on applying the concept to edge computing.
As-a-service models are growing more attractive to the Army given the flexibility they provide.
The Army last year issued awards to two companies under a pilot effort for SATCOM-as-a-managed-service to help inform a potential way ahead and possibly broader strategy for as-a-service models. It’s also just beginning to kick off a radio-as-a-service pilot.
The Army is now thinking about the prospect of a compute-as-a-service effort as its next endeavor.
The Army and industry have to deliver lightweight and decomposed applications that have the agnostic capability to go with that compute - those go hand-in-hand and officials want to kick things off around the 2025-2026 time frame.
The key requirement the Army has when it comes to providing capabilities in an as-a-service manner is when there’s demand, forces must be able to receive the capabilities they need.
“I’ve been in a lot of units where there’s a lot of radios that aren’t getting used. An on-demand model for radios just seems to make sense. Now, we have to get to a positive business relationship with industry and understand what the balance is. I think there’s certainly a delicate dance happening now and what that would look like.” Mark Kitz
Our Take: Very happy to see the Army expand adoption of As-a-Service models. These offer more rapid, flexible, and cost efficient approaches whereby industry is incentivized to continue to provide high quality services at affordable prices and the DoD pays for what they use.
A Lighter, High-Tech Abrams Tank is Taking Shape
The Army awarded the manufacturer of Abrams tanks a contract this month to begin the preliminary design of its new tank variant expected to be lighter and feature high-tech capabilities so it’s more survivable in battle.
“I think that there would be real goodness for the Army if M30 combat vehicles and M1E3 tanks could be fielded simultaneously to an armored brigade combat team. I think the Army senior leaders are going to push us to try to align those schedules, and whether that can be done is an open question right now.” BG Geoffrey Norman, Next Gen Combat Vehicles CFT Director
The contract allows the Army to work closely with General Dynamics Land Systems on shaping requirements for the new M1E3 Abrams tank.
The hope is to be able to bring the new variant into the force at a similar timeline to the M30 Mechanized Infantry Combat Vehicle, which is under development.
The Army is running a competition between two American Rheinmetall Vehicles and General Dynamics Land Systems to build the XM30 vehicle that will replace the Bradley infantry fighting vehicle. They plan to select a winner in FY27-28.
The Army last fall decided to scrap its upgrade plans for the Abrams tank and instead pursue a more significant modernization effort to increase the tank’s mobility and survivability on the battlefield.
Over the next 18 months, the Army will work through a series of tech maturation efforts to include autoloader capabilities, aides to enable a crew to operate fully buttoned up inside the tank alternate power trains, and active protection systems.
Army Units Won’t All Receive the Same EW Systems and That’s OK
Units across different theaters will receive different capabilities to address threats and terrain.
With a variety of dynamic threats across the world, the Army is coming to terms with the fact that units across theaters will have different electronic warfare equipment based on region.
The service has been on a years-long journey to rebuild its EW arsenal after it divested much of it following the conclusion of the Cold War.
Russia’s 2014 incursion into Ukraine spurred a hastening of those efforts, which mostly focused on the European theater.
Now, as the Indo-Pacific has become the priority theater for the DoD, the Army is forced to develop capabilities that will have to span different regions that have their own unique terrain and challenges from an EW perspective, and address different threats that employ their systems distinct from others.
To help test this flexible approach, the Army is employing a new concept dubbed transforming in contact, where the service plans to use deployments and troop rotations to test new equipment — mainly COTS gear — to allow units to be more responsive on a dynamic battlefield.
“The biggest takeaway, I think, is we can have the best EW techniques, we can have the best kit to identify and detect, but unless we’re doing it at the speed of the enemy, we’re not going to be successful.” BG Ed Barker, PEO IEW&S
US Adversaries Have Formidable EW Tools
The Pentagon must either find ways to dominate the electromagnetic spectrum or prepare its forces to operate in contested or even denied environments.
“I think the biggest takeaway is that our near-peer adversaries, and then elements like Hamas, have formidable EW capabilities. It’s really about making sure that our systems, our soldiers and our commanders have that kind of freedom of maneuver within the EMS.” BG Ed Barker, PEO IEW&S
Maintaining situational awareness is necessary for military commanders to communicate and guide weapons to their targets.
EMS is becoming increasingly used by U.S. adversaries such as Russia in its war against Ukraine, the militant group Hamas in Gaza and the Yemen-based Houthi rebel group in its attack on ships in the Red Sea.
It comes down to a select few advanced capabilities facing off against non-exquisite capabilities in mass, and sometimes that mass can be quite overwhelming.
“They have to be able to talk to each other. If we fight a near-peer tonight, we’re going to fight with the capabilities we have today. And so how do we make the systems that we have today more interoperable and able to share information, and then the systems that we’re bringing online? Super close alignment between the warfighter and acquisition is incredibly important as we move forward, and then making sure that we’re developing the requirements that drive interoperability from the beginning. This means a reduced focus on major weapon systems, and more of a focus on the data that those weapon systems use” Col. Josh Koslov, 350th Spectrum Warfare Wing Commander
Unleashing Innovation: The Case for an Army Drone Operator Branch
In the recently-passed HASC draft of the NDAA, members supported the creation of a new branch in the US Army, one specifically dedicated to drones. According to congressional language, this new Drone Corps would be responsible for projects, programs, and activities dealing with small and medium unmanned aircraft, systems that support these aircraft, and counter-UAS systems among other duties.
It’s seemingly a play on how Ukraine, the test case for how drones can be used on the battlefield, has created its own drone force.
But the Army, in typical fashion, quickly batted away the idea by arguing that specialization in drones might not be warranted at this time.
Gabe Camarillo believes that a singular drone branch could disrupt ongoing distributed efforts and hinder the pace of weapons acquisition.
GEN George does not believe it should be a separate branch and drones should instead be embedded and resident in every formation, at every echelon.
Congress is recognizing that technology alone often isn’t responsible for military innovation. Instead, it’s a combination of technology and organizational change that causes innovation, exactly what this new Drone Corps would provide.
Couple this with the idea of creative destruction, and a strong case can be made for the establishment of a Drone Corps. And despite its usual bureaucratic reservations, the Army should get on board.
The establishment of a dedicated drone branch within the US Army could very well be the key to innovation by unleashing competition between the otherwise monopolistic and entrenched branches.
If General George is correct and everyone “owns” drones, then what we may have is a tragedy of the commons, where everyone consumes this critical common resource, yet no specific branch or formation wants to pay for it.
The case for a drone operator branch in the Army is therefore several-fold.
It will encourage specialization and expertise. Drone technology has evolved rapidly, and its applications extend beyond reconnaissance.
Like any new innovation, agility and adaptability will be crucial. A separate branch would streamline decision-making and bypass the parochial interests of the other branches who could be threatened by the innovation. Drone operators could respond swiftly to emerging threats, unencumbered by bureaucratic hurdles.
This represents a monumental cultural shift, similar to the adoption of aviation and armor by the Army following WWI. Establishing a drone operator branch sends a clear message: innovation matters. It encourages a culture of experimentation, risk-taking, and continuous improvement.
A drone branch would provide the Army with legislative cover and protection from other long-standing and entrenched bureaucracies who may want to take over and marginalize all flying drone programs down the road.
The Army should seize this opportunity to embrace the future rather than being held hostage by the past.
Our Take: While initially skeptical of a drone corps within the Army, MG (ret) Ferrari makes some very solid points that warrant consideration. Recommend Army leaders current map out visually how UAS and UGVs are acquired, trained, operated, and sustained today and in the near future with other systems in the pipeline. Explore how soldiers are experimenting and rapidly iterating with novel TTPs to employ drones and counter adversary drones. If too distributed and forced to compete with other long-established Army communities, it may make sense to explore a new approach.
The Army needs to identify and empower leaders for drone warfare.
Navy
Navy Focuses on Rapidly Changing Battle Technology
The introduction of innovation units in more theaters and a greater emphasis on drones are among the ways the Navy is adapting to the rapidly changing character of war.
“The proliferation of unmanned drones in the Red Sea, and their use in conflicts such as the war in Ukraine are evidence that the nations which adapt quickly to new technology and integrate these capabilities will have the advantage. If you can integrate AI into your decision making, you will have speed of decision” ADM Lisa Franchetti, CNO
The recent deployment of an MQ-4C Triton drone detachment to NAS Sigonella in Sicily and a similar detachment in Guam as examples of the Navy’s work to assimilate drones and other technology into the fleet and drive innovation.
The Navy also has a fleet of surface drones in the U.S. 5th Fleet area of operations patrolling Middle Eastern waters. Task Force 59 has tested and operated unmanned systems in the region since 2021.
We know we’re going to need different skills to operate and integrate these unmanned systems, so having a robotics rating and sailors that specialize in that is really going to be imperative to us being able to get ahead on those technologies
The Marines' New Kamikaze Drone Will Take to the Skies With a Twist
Rogue 1 is built for one-way missions—but at what cost?
Teledyne FLIR unveiled a new quadcopter drone aircraft called Rogue 1 at a defense exposition in Tampa. Rogue 1 is designed to perform one-way—i.e. suicidal—attack missions.
This kind of drone is popularly dubbed a kamikaze, or suicide, drone. The defense industry prefers the term “loitering munition,” referring to the drone’s ability to spend time loitering over the battlefield at low speeds, giving the operator time to locate a target using the drone’s sensors.
But in a twist, Rogue 1 doesn't sacrifice itself pointlessly in the event no suitable targets are found. Its designers have taken pains to ensure it's capable of safely returning to base to fight another day.
The U.S. military is nowhere close to operating any loitering munition on the scale seen in Ukraine, though it did operationally employ comparatively fancy Switchblade-300 anti-personnel loitering munition on a limited scale in Iraq and Afghanistan in the 2010s.
Teledyne hopes Rogue 1 can help fill the gap. Not only has the Special Operations Command (SOCOM) been secretly testing Rogue 1 since 2022 for its Ground Organic Precision Strike System (GOPSS) program, but now, the Marine Corps’ Systems Command has awarded Teledyne $12M to deliver 127 Rogue 1s for initial fielding in that service’s Organic Precision Fire-Light program.
The Marine Corps may spend up to $249M over up eight years on Organic Precision Fires-Light (OPF-L), a program aimed to furnish dismounted Marine rifle squads with a portable beyond-line-of-sight precision attack capability.
Anduril and AeroVironment, have also been awarded money by the Marine Corps for OPF-L. The Corps insists that following the evaluation phase, it may procure more than one of the OPF-L entrants.
Meanwhile, SOCOM and the Marine Corps have independently selected Israeli company UVision’s Hero-120SF and Hero-30SFR loitering munitions for ‘heavier’, medium-range components of the GOPSS and OPF programs.
Ukrainians and Russians are manufacturing tens of thousands of FPVs monthly, many assembled from their homes at a price of $500 or less, and rarely more than thousands of dollars.
By contrast, Hero-120 cost $150,000, Switchblade-300s cost $53,000; and the initial Rogue-1s cost $94,000.
Finding the right balance between quantity and quality remains an ongoing challenge. For now, Teledyne-FLIR argues that reusability, flexible payloads, resilience versus electronic warfare, and quality cameras are Rogue 1’s added values for its one-way mission.
The Case for Data Science at Sea
Today, naval units must be prepared to deploy into increasingly dangerous and complex operating environments. Every afloat warfare commander—whether they are responsible for strike, air defense, surface operations, or information warfare—must be able to think on their feet and use all available information about the battlespace to achieve and maintain decision superiority while operating forward.
Carrier Strike Group One (CSG-1), in collaboration with Project Overmatch, established the Navy’s first Data Science at Sea (DS@S) team to create an afloat capability to use intelligence, battlespace, and operational data to fulfill emerging warfare requirements.
This effort was the continuation of work by CSG-1’s information warfare team during their 2021–22 deployment, which used Python scripting and the Geographical Information System (GIS) to automate manpower-intensive tasks on board a Nimitz-class aircraft carrier.
CSG-1’s new DS@S team had three goals:
Man, train and, equip a mixed uniform and civilian data science team to support CSG-1 operations throughout the workup cycle and into the 2023–24 deployment. This team would work on board and deploy with the USS Carl Vinson (CVN-70).
Track DS@S performance in terms of warfare commander requirements addressed, projects developed and deployed, and man-hours saved.
Document the man, train, and equip inputs for integration into the formal OPNAV Requirements process to support scaling DS@S to other CSGs.
With the support of Project Overmatch, NAVWAR, and PEO-C4I, CSG-1’s DS@S seven person team achieved all three goals over the past year and a half.
Shifting from a Power Point centric information sharing model to one that harnesses, analyzes, and displays data more effectively.
CSG-1’s top priority during the deployment was refining the maritime fires process. In response, the DS@S team designated maritime fires its number one production priority, leading to the creation of two new software projects: PELICAN and HORUS.
Both projects reached IOC four months later and were subsequently used on board the Carl Vinson, fulfilling the warfighter’s request for geospatial correlation to weapon-target pairing (Project PELICAN) and the rapid visualization of find, fix, track, target, engage, and assess (F2T2EA) kill webs (Project HORUS).
Automating repetitive routine analysis and production tasks increased product accuracy and significantly reduced manual analyst effort during the 2023–24 deployment.
DS@S teams can enhance the Navy’s afloat decision-making capabilities, improve battlespace awareness, and respond dynamically to emerging warfare requirements by harnessing the power of data analytics and software development at the tactical edge.
As the Navy continues to adapt to an increasingly complex maritime operating environment, the importance of innovative approaches to data analysis and software development that can go fast at the tactical edge cannot be overstated.
By scaling the DS@S concept across the fleet and investing in the necessary training and resources, the Navy can establish a sustained rapid innovation capability across the tactical edge, collaborating and scaling the best of breed solutions across the Navy and ultimately enhancing its overall effectiveness and readiness in an evolving threat landscape.
Our Take: Wow, such rapid success and high mission impact! BZ! Scale immediately!
Navy’s HALO Hypersonic Anti-Ship Missile Planned For Ships, Submarines, As Well As Jets
An air-launched air-breathing hypersonic anti-ship cruise missile that is now in development for the Navy could also arm its ships and submarines. This would give Navy surface and subsurface fleets an entirely new category of naval strike capability.
The Navy already described its future hypersonic anti-ship missile as essential for tackling advanced naval threats in high-end conflicts, such as one in the Pacific against China.
Details about the Navy's plans for what is formally called the Hypersonic Air-Launched Offensive Anti-Surface Warfare (HALO) program were included in documents posted online as part of a recent contracting announcement.
The Navy awarded contracts to Raytheon and Lockheed Martin in March 2023 to develop competing missiles for HALO. Details about the designs are scant, but they are widely believed to be powered by advanced ramjet or scramjet engines.
Per FY25 Navy budget docs:
"The acquisition strategy for Increment 2 HALO system is currently structured as a Middle Tier Acquisition rapid prototyping program with a flight demonstration planned in FY27. The Increment 2 HALO MTA is planned as a competition for multiple launch platform capabilities (air, surface, and subsurface)."
"OASuW Inc 2/HALO will be a carrier-suitable, higher-speed, longer-range, air-launched weapon system providing superior Anti Surface Warfare capabilities. OASuW Inc 2/HALO will address advanced threats from engagement distances that allow the Navy to operate in, and control, contested battle space in littoral waters and A2/AD environments."
Current Navy surface fleet inventory includes:
Harpoon anti-ship missiles with range of 75 miles
Tomahawk cruise missiles with range of 1,000 miles
Naval Strike Missiles stealthy with range of 100 miles
Air Force
AFRL Seeks Advanced ISR Sensors, Including for Moving Targets
AFRL is seeking bidders for a new initiative to develop new radars for a variety of ISR missions, including tracking moving targets for use by the Air Force, Space Force, Army, and Navy.
Under the S&T Applied RF Systems program, estimated to cost $95M over six years, AFRL is looking to award up to three IDIQ contracts.
Interested vendors have until June 12 to respond.
The objective of the STARS program is to develop advanced RF capabilities which will provide sensing for all-weather day-night ISR using non-traditional radar modes for persistent surveillance across permissive, contested, and highly contested boundaries in multiple environments (e.g., air, land, sea, space and cyber space) to improve the capabilities of the Air Force and Tri-Service Communities.”
These capabilities will provide sensing solutions for
Passive Source Localization (PSL)
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR)
Moving Target Indication (MTI)
A myriad of enabling and complementary technologies and research areas including but not limited to Tracking, Automatic Target Recognition, Interference Suppression, and Modeling Simulation and Analysis.
The program will assign task orders to winning vendors under four categories
Algorithm and software design, development, and implementation
Modeling Simulation and Analysis
Lab and flight testing, and hardware development
Systems integration and transition planning
Virginia Startup to Develop Fixed-Wing Drone for US Air Force
RapidFlight has secured a $10M contract to produce a fixed-wing autonomous aircraft for the Air Force.
The three-year deal supports the AFWERX Autonomy Prime program, which collaborates with small businesses to develop innovative solutions addressing challenges across military operations.
The initial phase of the contract will run for seven months and complete the design of an unmanned aerial system for developmental testing and evaluation at the Autonomy Prime proving ground at Duke Field, FL.
The drone is designed to carry up to 12 pounds (5 kilograms) of cargo and achieve a range of up to 150 nautical miles (280 kilometers).
Each system planned for the project will incorporate four airframe parts, a ground control station, a compact launcher, and a field kit.
The aircraft will be accompanied by RapidFlight’s Common Avionics 2.0 modular interface for “faster and more economical” flight data generation and developmental payload integration throughout test sessions.
Space Force
SDA Opens Door to New Vendors with HALO Satellite Program
The Hybrid Acquisition for Proliferated LEO (HALO) program aims to provide companies an opportunity to gain experience with SDA on demonstration projects.
The agency on May 31 released a solicitation for its HALO program, which will establish a pool of pre-approved vendors eligible to compete for upcoming demonstration projects.
Through HALO, selected vendors will be eligible to compete for future demonstration prototype projects.
SDA plans to award multiple contracts annually.
While established defense contractors have gotten the lion’s share of SDA’s contracts for its planned LEO constellation, the HALO program is designed to attract newer commercial players to rapidly prototype and demo solutions.
Proposals are due July 11, with an industry briefing scheduled for June 17.
Our Take: This is a great approach. SDA has prided itself on attracting non-traditional vendors but there was a little disappointment to see the large primes get most of the contracts (even if it is causing them to shift their business models). This approach provides a way for providing NTDCs a ramp to building the processes and tech maturity to become more competitive on future tranches.
US Space Force Sorts Through Industry Ideas to Boost Satellite Sensors
Space Force is working with industry to understand what capabilities can help expand the service’s portfolio of space domain awareness satellites, amid a growing demand for sensors in geosynchronous orbit.
The service operates a fleet of satellites under its Geosynchronous Space Situational Awareness Program that orbit 22,000 miles above Earth.
They conduct SDA and perform rendezvous and proximity operations, drawing close to other satellites to observe and provide data on them.
In March, Space Systems Command asked companies for ideas on how to augment that constellation with smaller, maneuverable spacecraft equipped with different sensors that can be refueled in orbit.
It will take time for the service to transition to a new satellite architecture and shift to the more advanced capabilities - likely not until 2026 or 2027.
The Space Force has been leveraging commercial SDA capabilities through several initiatives, including its Joint Commercial Operations cell.
The next step for the service is to better understand the dynamics of the private sector markets.
The service needs to understand the capabilities of satellite buses for instance so it can tap into that existing pool rather than design military-unique requirements.
“Now, the push that I have when I’m working with industry, and the request that I always have, is please make sure that I’m not packing in unique requirement sets in [requests for information] or [requests for proposals] that force you to deviate from that commercially available product to start going toward a military-unique product.” Col. Bryon McClain, Program Executive Officer for Space Domain Awareness and Combat Power
Aalyria Selected for $1B Space Force Rapid Capabilities Office Contract
Aalyria has been awarded a $1B Indefinite-Delivery, Indefinite-Quantity (IDIQ) contract with the Space Force Rapid Capabilities Office (RCO).
Supports the Rapid Resilient Command and Control Combined Program Office (R2C2 CPO) whose goal is to advance network command and control capabilities in support of Dynamic Space Operations (DSO).
Space Force RCO is tasked with the expedited development and deployment of critical space systems, including modernizing ground control software systems to achieve increased architecture agility, resiliency, and maneuverability.
The R2C2 program is aimed at developing a system to enable the synchronization of orbital assets for potential conflict.
The goal is to enable a real-time command and control of assets like satellites or spacecraft to take action in hostile circumstances – such as maneuvering or re-routing networks to avoid potential threats.
Aalyria’s Spacetime enables a "Waze-like" capability routing network traffic in the most efficient way possible; determining alternative network pathways to avoid disruptions; and creating entirely new pathways when needed.
Firefly Inks Deal with Lockheed to Launch Up To 25 Missions
Lockheed Martin selected Firefly Aerospace’s Alpha rocket to fly as many as 25 missions for the defense contractor through 2029.
The deal, announced June 5, commits Lockheed to 15 launch reservations and up to 10 optional missions.
The Texas-based launch company set records for the U.S. Space Force in September 2023 when its Alpha vehicle launched a mission within 27 hours of receiving orders.
Part of a broader Tactically Responsive Space program, the effort demonstrated the ability to rapidly buy, build integrate and launch a satellite.
Firefly will transport, mate and complete final launch operations on rapid timelines.
Our Take: It is great to see Lockheed partnering with a commercial company that can provide the agility and responsiveness that the Space Force is going to need in a coming conflict.
Kudos to SpaceX for a Successful Launch and Landing of Super Heavy Starship!
Kudos to NASA and Boeing for their Starliner Launch with astronauts.
International
iCOMAT Raises $22.5M Financing Led by 8VC and NATO Innovation Fund to Automate Composites Manufacturing
iCOMAT, a pioneer in advanced composite manufacturing, announced the successful closure of its Series A funding round, securing $22.5M in capital.
The round was led by 8VC and co-led by NATO Innovation Fund.
Other investors joining the round include Syensqo Ventures and existing investors Velocity Partners VC.
iCOMAT's automated and scalable manufacturing technology, the first of its kind, is delivering lighter, stronger and more sustainable structures for aerospace and automotive vehicles.
iCOMAT's technology addresses these needs by leveraging a breakthrough in composite materials and carbon fiber.
Unlike conventional methods, which stacks multiple straight fiber layers, iCOMAT has developed technology that enables fiber steering – the ability to steer the fibers to optimize the properties of a structure at any point.
This innovative technology can help reduce weight by 10-65% compared to the state-of-the-art commercial solutions and can increase production rates by 10x.
The View From Taiwan: Democracy in Action
Taiwan is a critical link in the global coalition of democracies as we work to maintain our techno-economic edge over the Axis of Disruptors.
Policymakers in Taiwan recognize the pivotal role of technological advantage in security and prosperity. In his inaugural address, President Lai announced his goal of transforming Taiwan into an “AI Island.”
Lai described AI as a catalyst for fortifying Taiwan’s workforce, military, and economy, the kind of positive vision for AI applications that enables technological success.
Such initiatives would meaningfully kickstart Taiwan’s software ecosystem, which has long lagged behind its hardware production capabilities.
President Lai specified that Taiwan seeks to play a key role in trusted supply chains whose values aligns with SCSP’s Vision for Competitiveness to secure the U.S.’s innovation power.
Taiwan would be a prime candidate for the kind of enhanced techno-economic partnerships between democracies that SCSP envisions.
The U.S. public and private sectors also need to think creatively about how to engage with Taiwan across multiple fronts.
We are already seeing encouraging signs in this direction.
Since 2019, 12 U.S. states have established representative offices in Taiwan to bolster trade and investment ties.
Last November, Taiwan signed its first trade framework deal in Europe with the establishment of an Enhanced Trade Partnership with the UK, a likely Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) signatory.
A Chinese Economic Blockade of Taiwan Would Fail or Launch a War
Last month, China launched one of the largest military exercises in recent memory, nearly completely encircling Taiwan with dozens of warships and fighter jets.
This exercise, Joint Sword 2024A, was in response to the inauguration of Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te.
In recent months, multiple analysts have argued that the main threat facing Taiwan is not the possibility of an overwhelming seaborne invasion of the island, but that of gray zone coercion campaigns or a blockade forcing Taiwan to capitulate to Chinese aggression.
Taiwan leaders think China is more likely to execute an economic blockade of Taiwan than it is to proceed with a direct military attack on the island nation.
Others believe an economic blockade in lieu of a full-scale military invasion has a low probability of success and, therefore, Beijing is unlikely to pursue such an operation and, indeed, hasn’t attempted it yet even though it has had the capability to do so for decades.
Despite China’s extensive influence operations in Taiwan, its recruitment of agents, and the economic and military pressure it has so far placed on the island, the Taiwanese people overwhelmingly reject unification, with just 1.2 percent of Taiwanese citizens desiring unification as soon as possible and only 7 percent wanting it at all.
There are key reasons a Chinese economic blockade would fail:
It would rebound on China’s own economy
Likely escalate into a full-scale war
Entail serious geopolitical risk.
Our Take: This article is worth a full read. It’s important for the U.S. to decide in advance how it would handle different scenarios to avoid China achieving its objectives on Taiwan - even if it currently seems unlikely they would succeed.
Is There a Revolution in Military Affairs in Ukraine?
The 28 months since Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine has seen a plethora of publications that explore innovation in the war.
While the majority of works examine the application of uncrewed systems in the aerial and maritime environments, other adaptations explored have included digitized command and control, the application of different sensor systems, long range strike regimes, electronic warfare as well as changes in tactics and strategy.
There are three systems which, together, likely comprise a transformative trinity in this war:
Democratised and Digitised Command and Control. Software-defined warfare, as some have begun to describe it, or algorithmic warfare, has assumed a fundamental role in military decision-making during the war.
The Meshed Civil-Military Sensor Net. This is the ‘meshing’ of the full range of military and civilian sources, collected through many different sensing systems, to produce a more robust and coherent understanding of the operating environment.
The Autonomous and Counter-Autonomy Complex. The most ubiquitous elements of this complex are the drones used by tactical forces to seek out the enemy.
Whether one agrees this is how the war in Ukraine is transforming military operations, there is some evidence for this war driving a rethink of force structure and equipment in militaries well beyond this Eastern European theatre of war.
Countries such as the US, UK, Japan, Taiwan and China have been observing the war, reassessing their force structure and procurement priorities, and investing in new technologies that have proven themselves during the war, particularly those that lie within the three elements of the transformative trinity described above.
Podcasts, Books, and Videos
High Power Microwave Weapons, The Merge
Hard Truths Behind Innovation in the DoD w/Brian Morrison, Defense Mavericks
Building AI for Defense: Challenges and Triumphs w/Davaki Raj, All Quiet on the Second Front
Ethos, Logos, Pathos from the Government Side, Gov’t Contracting Officer
Nuclear Protection, Collisions in Space, and Marine Corps Evacuation, National Defense
Blueprint for Catastrophic Success w/ Lt Col Casey “Waldo” Miller, Defense Unicorns
Upcoming Events
Navy Contracting Summit, Defense Leadership Forum, Jun 11-12, Norfolk, VA
NEXUS 24, Jun 13, Washington DC
Eurosatory, Jun 17-21, Paris, FR
Federal Acquisition Conference, PSC, Jun 20-24, Arlington, VA
Reindustrialize: Modernize the US Industrial Base, Jun 25-26, Detroit, MI
TechNetCyber, AFCEA, Jun 25-27, Baltimore, MD
Digital Engineering for Defense, DSI, Jun 26-27, National Harbor, MD
See our Events Page for all the other events over the next year.
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