Defense Tech and Acquisition News
Counter Drone Technology, AI Fighters, Munition Shortages, Growing Space Technology and Allied Collaboration - Defense Is Not Slowing Down
No. 1 Threat: Drone Attacks Prompt Urgent $500M Pentagon Request
Drone attacks have become the No. 1 threat to U.S. troops deployed abroad, prompting a $500M urgent request to help erect defenses.
Military officials described an intense effort to protect troops from drones with missiles, microwave radiation, and lasers.
The Pentagon is receiving more than $500M through a supplemental request to Congress to address the drone threat.
The reality plays out from the Red Sea, where Iranian-backed Houthi militants fire drones at busy shipping lanes, to Iran, which launched a wave of drones and missiles at Israel.
In both cases, virtually all of the drones were destroyed before hitting their targets. But it takes an array of defenses and considerable expense to do so.
A U.S. Patriot missile unit based in Iraq downed a ballistic missile headed toward Israel, and two squadrons of warplanes knocked down dozens of drones. A single Patriot missile interceptor costs about $4M.
The first layer of defense would ideally stretch 10 miles from the gate involve EW weapons that could spoof the drone into hitting a different target or cutting the link between the drone and its operator.
The layer closer in might use microwave weapons that actually fry the innards of the drone, rendering it harmless.
The final layer requires shooting down the drone. Weapons like the Coyote, which fires a small missile at drones, or machine guns to knock them down with a hail of bullets.
“Defense against drones can be as simple as hiding from them and as complex and zapping them from the sky with a laser. And pretty much everything in between. There is no silver bullet and even exquisite capabilities like the Patriot system may not be survivable against certain threats. You need a layered defense approach.” MG David Stewart, Director Counter-Unmanned Aircraft Systems Office.
New Marine Corps ‘Fusion Center’ to Focus on Counter-Drone Tech
The Marines recently set up what is being called a “fusion center” at Quantico, Virginia with an initial focus on counter-unmanned aerial systems capabilities.
Designed to bring together officials from various organizations that play a key role in Marine Corps modernization to help move capabilities from the science-and-technology enterprise through the acquisition pipeline to fielding.
The fusion center will help program managers “look left” for new opportunities.
The Marine Corps has just had Stinger man-portable air defense systems.
Now they are on the cusp of deploying a whole suite of systems to counter UAS in a way that can be rapidly upgraded to accommodate new threats.
That includes a vehicle-mounted Light Marine Air Defense Integrated System (LMADIS), which has been executed as a joint urgent needs program.
There is also the Medium-Range Intercept Capability (MRIC), which can defeat UAS up to Group 3 and counter cruise missiles.
“Some things we’ll be able to pull into an emerging program of record. And there’ll be some things that I’m hoping we can facilitate into our immediate program of records as a kind of engineering change proposal technology refresh out there…even potentially with software as we’re fielding. We’re really focusing our program managers on again, you know, the constant looking ahead at their planning and their milestones. But look to the left occasionally. And with this fusion cell, we have resources there to help that.” Steve Bowdren, Head of PEO Land Systems
Marines To More Than Triple Size of Air Defense Forces By 2029
The U.S. Marine Corps is in the process of a major expansion of its organic ground-based air and missile defense forces.
The total number of air defense batteries within the service is set to increase by more than two-thirds by the end of the decade.
Next year, units will be equipped with a mixture of new medium and short-range capabilities, including a version of Israel's Iron Dome, with a particular focus on added defenses against drones and cruise missiles.
That will consist of the initial fielding of the Marine Air Defense Integrated System [MADIS] which consists of two 4x4 Joint Light Tactical Vehicles (JLTV) with similar, but different air defense configurations.
One vehicle has a remote weapon station armed with a 30mm automatic cannon capable of firing proximity-fuzed rounds and Stinger missiles.
The second vehicle has the same type of remote weapon station, but no Stingers, and has added electronic warfare, electronic support measures, and sensor capabilities, including active electronically-scanned radar arrays.
Small form factor AESA radars are an increasingly popular component of counter-drone systems.
There is also the "Light" version of MADIS, or L-MADIS, which consists of 4x4 Polaris MRZR all-terrain vehicles equipped with a mix of sensors and electronic warfare jammers.
L-MADIS vehicles can be carried inside the main cabin of an MV-22 Osprey.
The system is ideally suited for supporting smaller echelons, including forces embarked on amphibious warfare ships.
MRIC is by far the most substantial forthcoming addition to the Marine Corps' air defense arsenal. It utilizes a trailer-based road-mobile launcher and fires the same Tamir interceptors as Iron Dome, which use active radar seekers to zero in on their targets and have a very high degree of maneuverability.
The service plans to pair MRIC with its AN/TPS-80 Ground/Air Task-Oriented Radar (G/ATOR), which is a modern road-mobile multi-purpose AESA radar that can be used for air defense and more general air traffic control purposes.
The Army Has Officially Deployed Laser Weapons Overseas to Combat Enemy Drones
The Army has officially deployed the 20-kilowatt Palletized High Energy Laser, or P-HEL to an undisclosed location abroad.
The P-HEL, which is based on defense contractor BlueHalo's LOCUST Laser Weapon System, commenced operational employment overseas in November 2022, while a second system arrived abroad earlier this year.
P-HEL's operational employment marks the U.S. military's first publicly acknowledged deployment of a working laser weapon for air defense outside of experimental testing.
The service declined to confirm whether the P-HEL had achieved a "kill" against an incoming drone yet.
Laser weapons work by converting electrical power into an intense stream of photons that, when narrowed through a beam director, can burn through various materials -- like, say, the carbon fiber body of a drone, the casing of a rocket or mortar, or even the hull of a small boat.
The P-HEL's employment comes as the U.S. military seeks to bolster its air defense capabilities to protect service members abroad with solutions other than just expensive conventional munitions -- such as the $2.1 million Standard Missile-2 naval missile and the $480,000 Stinger missile.
Those systems have helped run up a $1 billion tab for the Pentagon in the Middle East since October -- but effective, lower-cost, counter-drone solutions that can knock incoming threats out of the sky without breaking the bank are needed.
If operationally proven, a laser weapon could drastically turn that cost calculus on its head: The average laser weapon costs between only $1 and $10 per shot, according to a 2023 report from the GAO.
Time—The Forgotten Dimension in Defense
Among technology companies, time is the critical, omnipresent competitive dimension with leading companies focusing on a time-to-market metric.
As the 2018 NDS stated, “Success goes to the country that better integrates and adapts its way of fighting…Our response will be to prioritize speed of delivery, continuous adaptation, and frequent modular upgrades.” In other words, speed matters.
The bureaucratic structure and culture within the DoD is at odds with going fast.
The years of time developing a budget and the lack of agility to move money once approved are the biggest inhibitors of innovation at the Pentagon.
In a landmark study, Bill Greenwalt and Dan Patt, observed that for the delivery of new weapons platforms (like subs or fighter aircraft), there is a 7- to 27-year timespan from initial design to warfighter use.
DoD should explicitly recognize speed as a competitive dimension.
To do so is relatively simple: measure the actual time to make a decision, complete a process, or deliver an outcome.
This is not the same as being on schedule which is completing a task within a forecast.
The phrase “fast cycle time” was coined 20 years ago and suggested how to align business purpose, strategy and structure for speed.
There is probably no more striking example of the focus on speed than the production of the P-51 Mustang from WWII which was flying 153 days after an initial order and operating within two years.
The more complex F-35 took 25 years. A commercial aircraft takes 7 years.
With a never-ending emphasis on innovation within national security, there should be an equal emphasis on delivering that innovation with relevant speed.
Our Take: We couldn’t agree more as we’ve written extensively on the need to accelerate capabilities. This includes publishing timelines from Idea to IOC for all acquisition programs as well as annual reports by portfolio and service acquisition execs summarizing what capabilities were delivered to warfighters. We also recognize that technology development is challenging, and that DoD often has some of the most challenging requirements. This is also why we have advocated for incremental fielding where an initial capability is fielded and iterated on over time.
Why Increasing the Value of Defense Primes is Good for the Country
The CTO of Palantir Technologies makes a sincere case to make America’s primes more valuable.
The relative weight of the U.S. defense industrial base has shrunk substantially.
Traditional defense contractors are often contractually limited in the amount of profit they can make on government contracts with margins a third of leading commercial tech companies.
Giving defense primes the opportunity to earn their higher profits will catalyze the flow of private capital to defense R&D, promote greater innovation, and subsequently drive down the costs of government spending.
The six primes are collectively worth only 53% of Meta but have 2X revenue.
Three key features of defense contracting impede the free flow of private capital, moonshot R&D investments, and profits:
Independent R&D costs is a reimbursed expense. Contractors are incentivized to spend government money on conservative R&D.
Even if primes wanted to invest greater sums into R&D, they would face limits on contract profit margins. FAR 15.404-4 caps profit at 10% or 15%.
Even if primes invested in high-risk, high-reward R&D, the DoD’s insistence on owning commercial IP neutralizes the fiscal benefits of the risk.
Primes must rotate their business model away from cost-plus and toward privately funded R&D to build up IP and product portfolios that have commercial item pricing.
In doing so, their revenue may shrink as they focus on higher margins and product-driven work, but their valuation will increase as the stock is re-rated.
if Lockheed Martin’s revenue was cut in half but its multiple tripled, its valuation would rise 50%.
That means there is $35B of additional defense budget to invest in more capability delivered through innovative product companies, like new entrants in defense tech ecosystem. But it also means that Lockheed Martin’s investors would be very happy, as would the warfighter.
Our Take: This seems very straight forward, and it would be interesting to hear the response from some of the large primes and why they haven’t pursued this strategy. It may well be the IP issue as highlighted in this article or it could be driven by the fact that DoD didn’t leverage the investments in a reasonable timeframe, and they saw greater financial benefits from internal rates of investment than on waiting for a DoD contract. It could also be the greater scrutiny on IRAD where it has to be reported and certified by the CEO to DoD.
The fact is that primes have the funds to invest in IRAD as indicated by the massive stock buy-back programs recently highlighted by defense watchers and various reports, but it could shift some of their favorable financials. Wall Street may reward defense primes for their stability (as seen by low volatility in TSR) and making more big bets could introduce more changes year to year. They also have high Return on Assets which usually indicates an efficient company - greater IRAD could impact that metric.
It seems at least some defense primes see value in expanding internal investments… at least in the JADC2 space. That behavior might be driven by companies like Palantir who are coming to the table with tech-enabled solutions that have already been matured with massive internal investments.
How the Pentagon Can More Rapidly Buy and Field the Latest Tech
The U.S. cannot afford to fall behind in advancing technologies — like AI, quantum computing, hypersonics, biotechnology or autonomous systems — against a near-peer adversary like China.
The ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the Iranian strike of Israel demonstrate that military applications of advanced technologies are accessible and proliferating.
The primary reason that DoD struggles to acquire and incorporate technologies to warfighters in a timely manner is the over 60-year-old PPBE system.
For decades, the DOD relied on innovation flowing from government labs and the large defense companies, generally funded through the Pentagon research budget.
Now, innovation flows increasingly from the nondefense commercial sector, which moves at a pace that far exceeds government processes.
PPBE reform is required to take advantage of this new technological landscape.
Complex and inconsistent rules make the basic commercial practice of modernization through rapid iteration unachievable for DoD.
Key Recommendations from the PPBE Report
Delegate more authority within the DOD to make faster decisions.
Update values for below-the-threshold reprogramming, or BTR.
Consolidate budget line items as well as research, development, test and evaluation budget activities.
Allow for the more modern use of color when it comes to funding.
Permit more departmental innovation activities under continuing resolutions.
In the three years it takes to get through the PPBE process, computer processor speeds will have quadrupled, multiple generations of advanced drone systems will have been manufactured, and thousands of new biological materials will have been developed.
Our Take: As major advocates for budget reform, we cannot agree more with these recommendations. DoD will never achieve its lofty goals through lengthy top-down planning approaches. Much of the innovation needed is going to have to come from the bottom-up but right now that talent is trapped in the “PPBE Box” and can only make minor adjustments to existing projects with very little flexibility to begin new ones. Budget consolidation, greater BTR flex, reduced colors and delegation would go a long way. The ability to operate under a CR sadly has become a thing of necessity.
Defense Innovation Unit FY23 Annual Report
DIU published their annual report. In the opening letter, Doug Beck wrote:
“As we build upon this momentum in FY 2024 and beyond, everything we do at DIU — and across the public and private defense innovation community — will be measured against our ability to generate strategic impact. Together, it is our job to break new ground and to take the prudent risks necessary to reduce the strategic and operational risks facing our nation and the warfighters whose job it is to defend it. The time to deliver is now.”
Transitioned Projects
(Air Force) Air Logistics Optimization: $1.34M
(Multiple) Blue Unmanned Aerial Systems 2.0: $173K
(CYBERCOM) Cyber Threat Telemetry: $1.6M
(Air Force) Collaborative Tactical Autonomy for Networked Aircraft: $1.2M
(Air Force) NCR Integrated Air Defense Systems: $1.6M
(Navy/Marine Corps) Small-Class Unmanned Underwater Vehicle: $10.7M
(SOCOM) Advanced Tactical Communications: $3.1M
One Undisclosed.
Air Force and DoD lead in prototype funding with DIU.
Air Force had the largest number of transitioned projects in FY23.
Article: Pentagon technology hub sees lower transition rate, higher value deals
National Security Innovation Network FY23 Year in Review
NSIN continues to serve as an accelerator and connector across the defense innovation ecosystem.
Agencies Awarded Record-Breaking $179B to Small Businesses in FY23
The Small Business Administration’s annual procurement scorecard found that almost $179B in prime contracts went to smaller companies in the previous fiscal year, an increase of approximately $16B from FY22.
SBA FY23 Small Business Procurement Scorecard
GSA’s New Approach to Small Business Matchmaking
GSA is putting its final touches on its Alliant 3 IT solicitation and is trialing a new approach to attracting small businesses with new or emerging technology capabilities.
This approach includes evaluation criteria for large businesses to meet with at least five small businesses in one of 11 critical technology areas to get full credit.
This SM engagement approach has a low bar as the large company only has to meet with the small businesses with no expectation of doing business.
“There’s an opportunity for an ‘other than small business’ offeror to engage with small businesses that have eligible emerging technology solutions in any of these 11 areas.”
Our Take: This is an interesting approach as it is a fairly low bar for larger businesses to meet but gets various small businesses face time with larger firms - and hopefully opens the door to greater partnerships.
Measuring Success in Defense Innovation
The question is asked: Are we defining success appropriately?
There is a lack of clarity on the purpose and value of innovation programs.
The expectation is also myopic and time sensitive where a lock of innovation being immediately generated results in the end of programs.
Truly transformative innovations are generally not overnight sensations.
Look at the example of the car and airplane where it took many years before it was cost-effective enough to become a fully adopted innovation.
Focusing on facilitating incremental innovations is also powerful - they add up.
The problem is that the defense requirements system doesn’t have a standard means of handling minor upgrades that aren’t already tied to a program of record.
Program execution requires operators to learn the career field skills of an acquisition officer while doing their primary (demanding) job.
If we want to be able to capitalize on the big technology wins, we need to embrace, celebrate, and reward the smaller cultural wins.
Another way to accelerate innovation is to build an innovative culture.
Alternative Means of Measuring Success
Gain clarity on your programs objective outcomes.
Assess the metrics your using to measure success and make sure the more subtle wins are appropriately captured.
Reassess with a focus on what’s going right - capture it and celebrate it!
Review the things that aren’t working with focus, and think through resolution with the following questions in mind:
Is my resourcing aligned with my goals?
Are the individuals and personalities on the team aligned with my goals?
Our Take: Austin brings up a lot of great points. The entire article is worth a read even if you might need to be an insider to pick up on some of the challenges mentioned. As the famous Peter Drucker noted, “You can’t manage what you don’t measure” which makes you wonder how many things in DoD can possibly be managed. The importance of building a culture of innovation cannot be overstated. Too often, acquisition personnel are measured on their ability to satisfy process compliance, not on their ability to accelerate capabilities to the warfighter. A shift seems to be underway here given the vocal protestations of the CCMDs, but better measures would go a long way to reinforce that shift and communication to the larger acquisition workforce what is valued.
Point / CounterPoint: CJADC2 Edition
If CJADC2 is to Ever Happen, Let INDOPACOM Take the Lead
John Rosenberger: INDOPACOM chief should become the lead for the Pentagon's CJADC2 efforts, with an eye towards what is needed to counter China.
At the moment, INDOPACOM has no Standing Combined Joint Task Force (SCJTF) trained, poised, and ready to immediately employ the combat power of its Component Commands to defeat the PLA’s effort.
The INDOPACOM Commander would have to form an ad hoc operational CJTF that would take weeks to assemble and prepare for combat - and would have no functional and resilient CJADC2 network enabling a CJTF commander to exercise effective command and control of all his forces while being contested.
The best solution: Giving INDOPACOM the money and authorities to lead development of CJADC2 across the Pentagon and drive it with an operator’s real-world viewpoint.
Given the complexity of system, forming a single, functional, and resilient CJADC2 network is near impossible, and DoD’s top-down approach to creating one the past few years has been an abject failure at enormous expense.
It’s time for a new approach that prioritizes where the US needs this capability the most. Stop the current efforts of DoD and the individual Services to create a CJADC2 network in disjointed fashion, reprogram the funds currently earmarked for this effort and give the mission of creating a CJADC2 network to the INDOPACOM commander.
This has already been initiated with the Joint Fires Network using a best of breed approach from the Services and DARPA.
Services Making Progress Putting the J in CJADC2: Vice Chief Grady
ADM Christopher Grady: The JROC is going to put more teeth into its processes for driving the military services to fulfill joint requirements.
The military services are collaborating more closely to make the DoD’s CJADC2 a reality — with a bit of pushing from above in the DoD food chain.
Currently different military branches are pursuing their own CJADC2 initiatives, each prioritizing their own connectivity needs.
The Air Force has its Battle Network that reaches through outer space
The Navy is working on its secretive Project Overmatch,
The Army’s effort is called Project Convergence.
The JROC has a “well-written requirement for CJAD2” that was “intentionally written” broad to allow the services some wiggle room in how to meet it — a requirement that the vice chiefs have validated not just once but twice.
VCJCS Grady noted that the Deputy Secretary has “instituted a steering committee to really start to pull this all together — and one of the things that that she has been stressing is hey, we got to start talking about leave-behind minimum viable product.”
The evolution of CJADC2 has been driven in part, Grady explained, by the JROC’s own internal efforts to bolster its processes for shepherding joint requirements through the separate service budget processes.
He noted that his counterparts in the British and Australian armed forces “have a hammer that they can drop upon joint questions,” whereas “the JROC does not.
One of the big changes already put into effect, he elaborated, is the fact that the JROC now looks at requirements from “the top down,” rather than only focusing on reviewing service plans for “widgets” and giving them the thumbs up or down.
That top-down approach is based on the Joint Warfighting Concept — and focuses on ensuring all the service equities are taken into account.
Our Take: We have some opinions on this question, but we want to hear from you. Who would you pick to drive JADC2 to where it needs to go, at least for the first major increment?
Defense Tech
Manta Ray UUV Prototype Completes In-Water Testing
The Manta Ray prototype UUV built by performer Northrop Grumman completed full-scale, in-water testing off the coast of Southern California in February and March 2024. Testing demonstrated at-sea hydrodynamic performance, including submerged operations using all the vehicle’s modes of propulsion and steering: buoyancy, propellers, and control surfaces.
“Our successful, full-scale Manta Ray testing validates the vehicle’s readiness to advance toward real-world operations after being rapidly assembled in the field from modular subsections. The combination of cross-country modular transportation, in-field assembly, and subsequent deployment demonstrates a first-of-kind capability for an extra-large UUV.” Dr. Kyle Woerner, DARPA program manager.
Related article: Northrop’s colossal Manta Ray underwater drone passes at-sea tests
PsiQuantum to Build World’s First Utility-Scale, Fault-Tolerant Quantum Computer in Australia
PsiQuantum today announced it will build the world’s first utility-scale quantum computer at a strategically located site in Brisbane Australia.
A fault-tolerant quantum computer will be able to solve commercially useful problems across industries built upon chemistry, math, and physics.
It would transform critical industries – including renewable energy, minerals and metals, healthcare and transportation.
PsiQuantum is on an aggressive plan to have the site operational by the end of 2027.
The quantum computing industry has long faced complicated scaling challenges in building a quantum computer with enough physical qubits to enable error-correction.
PsiQuantum has scaled its fusion-based architecture using a photonics- approach, encoding qubits into particles of light, and leveraging advanced infrastructure in the semiconductor manufacturing industry to fabricate and test millions of photonic devices.
PsiQuantum’s first utility-scale system will be in the regime of 1 million physical qubits and hyperscale in footprint with a modular architecture that’s able to leverage existing cryogenic cooling technologies.
Near-Perfect Quantum Teleportation Achieved by Harnessing Noise
Researchers at the University of Turku, Finland, and the University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, have proposed a unique solution to overcome the problem of decoherence.
Quantum teleportation usually relies on perfectly connected pairs of particles (entangled qubits), but it’s easily messed up by decoherence, which disrupts those connections.
The novel method allows for high-quality teleportation to occur even in noisy environments.
Traditionally, photon polarization has been employed to entangle qubits in teleportation, but the present method takes advantage of the hybrid entanglement resulting from the combination of photon frequency and polarization.
This allows for a significant change in how the noise influences the protocol.
“The work is based on an idea of distributing entanglement — before running the teleportation protocol — beyond the used qubits, i.e., exploiting the hybrid entanglement between different physical degrees of freedom.” Jyrki Piilo, professor on the project.
Another US Precision-Guided Weapon Falls Prey to Russian EW
U.S.-provided precision-guided munitions have failed in mission after mission in Ukraine, taken down by Russian electronic warfare.
A new ground-launched version of an air-to-ground weapon developed for Ukraine on a rapid timeline failed to hit targets in part because of Russian electro-magnetic warfare.
Bill LaPlante suggested that Ukraine may no longer be interested in the weapon.
The weapon LaPlante is referring to is very likely the Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bomb (GLSDB).
The GLDSB boasts a range of 90 miles—double the range of the Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System (GMRLS) missiles Ukraine previously used to wreak havoc on Russia’s logistic centers.
Funding for the weapon was approved in February 2023, and Ukraine was reportedly using the weapon by February 2024.
The weapon relies on GPS to navigate to its targets and also has an inertial navigation system, which navigates to a target by estimating its position through the use of accelerometers and other devices.
Russian EW tools and tactics have impacted Excalibur rounds and GMLRS missiles in recent years.
Russia appears to be using GPS spoofers which work by sending false location data to GPS navigation devices.
Russia has saturated the front with electronic warfare, with truck-mounted electronic warfare systems primarily focused on jamming drones located every six to nine miles on Ukraine’s frontline.
One solution is to launch weapons from F-16s. Ukrainian pilots currently launch JDAMS from Soviet planes that can’t pass navigational data to the JDAMS, whereas F-16s can — which they are due to get shortly.
Evolving Federal R&D to Meet the Challenges of Tomorrow
James Ivers, Will Roper, Matt Watters, and John Willison
Maximizing the value of R&D expenditures will require taking a broader, portfolio-level perspective and accepting a certain level of risk—and failure—in the process.
In FY23, the US federal government spent approximately $190B on R&D - which was a roughly 13% increase over FY22, making it one of the largest R&D spending jumps in recent history.
Over the past several decades, the private sector has replaced the government as the driving force behind R&D, accounting for 73% of overall R&D spending in the country in 2020 (the reverse situation from the 50s and 60s).
VC investment in 2023 was equivalent to about 450% of DoD investment in advanced computing and software and about 800% of DoD’s investment in biotechnology.
While public and private sector R&D often differ in their nature and objectives, they share a common need to accelerate the time to impact and generate tangible outcomes for stakeholders in both the short and long term.
Drawing on lessons from leading R&D organizations in the pharmaceutical, aerospace, and VC sectors, we have distilled six best practices could help US federal government agencies maximize their R&D expenditures, accelerate technological innovation, and effectively deliver on their missions.
Recommendations
Go broad on ideas and deep on execution. Successful R&D organizations cast a wide net to source ideas and then make large, concentrated investments in a few select candidates with the most-promising risk/reward propositions.
Focus on distinctive capabilities. Top performers recognize the risks of being a jack of all trades and master of none; they take a critical eye to their organizational strengths and weaknesses and deliberately orient their R&D activities around existing competitive advantages.
Clearly define success metrics—and keep users at the center. It is critical to define success up front (for example, by evaluating R&D activities in the context of the organization’s mission statement and strategic objectives) and establish rigorous, data-driven performance-tracking mechanisms to evaluate progress.
Evaluate success at the portfolio level, not the project level. Best-in-class organizations recognize that R&D is a team sport. They use overall portfolio performance rather than individual project performance to manage resources and directly reward R&D personnel.
Accept failure as part of the process—and learn from it. Since R&D projects inherently have a low probability of success, R&D organizations must accept failure as part of the process. The most effective R&D organizations aggressively terminate projects that lag behind expectations and rapidly reallocate resources to the projects with the most potential.
Construct a balanced, tailored R&D portfolio. R&D organizations in both the private and public sector are expected to simultaneously advance near-term priorities and long-term objectives. This requires balancing the R&D portfolio to not only align with the organization’s target risk profile but also enable the full range of R&D investments—from high-risk, high-reward “moon shots” to feasible, near-term enhancements.
Our Take: There’s a lot of goodness to unpack here. Many of the core tenets of portfolio management that we have been proponents for are expounded on here and connected to real-world examples in the commercial sector. This paper is worth a full read. In looking at McKinsey’s chart on FY23 spend in key tech areas compared to the FY25 S&T budget priorities published this week, there are some drastic differences in tech investments.
The Rise of the Chief AI Officer
As boards grapple with the opportunity and risk of generative AI companies are leaning into a new role: the chief AI officer.
The number of companies with a designated head of AI position has almost tripled globally in the past five years, according to social network LinkedIn.
CAIOs oversee the deployment of AI and generative AI within an organisation: improving workforce efficiency, identifying new revenue streams, and mitigating ethical and security risks.
Their rise comes amid a fierce battle for AI expertise more broadly, with even relatively junior engineers at cutting-edge companies commanding seven-figure salaries.
Technologists typically come from university AI labs, then work with highly resourced Big Tech companies to turn ideas into products, informed by deep knowledge and intense interest in how to further develop AI.
CAIOs, on the other hand, tend to have backgrounds in computer science and business administration.
“They lead on transformation and outreach within and outside a company . . . It’s more about governance, socializing of the tech.” Tom Hurd, chief executive of Zeki
Air Force
An AI-Controlled Fighter Jet Took the Air Force Leader for a Historic Ride. What That Means for War
With the midday sun blazing, an experimental orange and white F-16 fighter jet launched with a familiar roar that is a hallmark of U.S. airpower.
The aerial combat that followed was unlike any other: This F-16 was controlled by artificial intelligence, not a human pilot.
Riding in the front seat was Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall.
The AI-controlled F-16, called Vista, flew Kendall in lightning-fast maneuvers at more than 550 miles an hour that put pressure on his body at five times the force of gravity.
It went nearly nose to nose with a second human-piloted F-16 as both aircraft raced within 1,000 feet of each other, twisting and looping to try force their opponent into vulnerable positions.
At the end of the hourlong flight, Kendall climbed out of the cockpit grinning. He said he’d seen enough during his flight that he’d trust this still-learning AI with the ability to decide whether or not to launch weapons in war.
“It’s a security risk not to have it. At this point, we have to have it.” Frank Kendall
Houthis Shoot Down Third MQ-9; Five Now Lost to Hostile Fire in Just Over a Year
Houthi rebels claim to have shot down an MQ-9 drone over Yemen. If confirmed, it would mark the third MQ-9 shot down by the Houthis in the past six months and the the sixth Reaper damaged in various Middle East conflicts within the 13 months.
The Reaper has been operational since 2008. With a persistence of up to 24 hours and a ceiling of 50,000 feet, the Reaper has been valuable in ISR missions in a number of conflicts and saw heavy use in Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria. The Air Force has employed more than 320 Reapers operationally. The remotely-piloted aircraft, valued at about $30M apiece, are operated by a rated pilot and sensor systems operator.
XQ-67 Confirmed to Be a Prototype for General Atomics’ Collaborative Combat Aircraft Design
The XQ-67 gives General Atomics a demonstrator that is already flying as competition to build Collaborative Combat Aircraft heats up.
There are also additional indications that the company's CCA drone, details about which were previously unknown, leverages work it is doing on the uniquely modular Gambit concept.
The XQ-67A was publicly unveiled in February and flew for the first time that month.
Since then the XQ-67A has successfully completed two additional test flights, laying the groundwork for a successful production and flight test program.
The Air Force also selected Anduril, still a relative newcomer in the U.S. defense sector, but one that is quickly becoming a power player in transformational technological approaches, to move forward in CCA's Increment 1.
That company's CCA offering is a version of Fury, a very different design from what General Atomics is working on.
General Atomics Adding AESA Radar and Software to Upgraded Gray Eagles
General Atomics, which produces large unmanned systems capable of flying for long periods at altitudes of 29,000-to-50,000 feet, believes the AESA will increase the range of its systems and provide more enhancements.
“We expect the AESA antenna to more than double the range for EagleEye. The increased range and optimized multi-mode performance of the radar are perfectly tailored to provide deep sensing capability in Multi-Domain Operations (MDO). That will allow the aircraft to operate well outside Weapons Effects Zone of most threat systems adding a layer of survivability supporting the Stand-Off survivability with Stand-In effects of long-range sensors.” Jeff Hettick, GA-ASI VP of agile mission systems
The upgrades will be housed on the Gray Eagle 25M, a part of the Gray Eagle modernization for the Army.
The Army has been flying MQ-1C Gray Eagles for over a decade, with newer variants for longer range and power being provided through the years.
The 25M provides up to five times more processing capacity and 80 times more data storage for increased computing power enabling processing at the edge.
Air Force declares Critical Nunn-McCurdy Cost Breach for MH-139A Grey Wolf Helo
The cost breach is driven by the service’s plan to cut the buy of the helicopter in half, not by any cost overrun in the program itself.
“Just last week, we were notified of a Nunn-McCurdy breach for the MH-139 Grey Wolf. This follows the Sentinel ICBM’s Nunn-McCurdy breach. We need to understand the implications of both of these breach reviews for FY25 and beyond.” Rep Ken Calvert, R-CA
Our Take: This is the stupid scenario of Nunn-McCurdy breaches that drive more paperwork and reviews.
Space Force
Space Force Flexes Muscle as Pentagon’s Smallest but Vital Branch
The U.S. Space Force, despite being the youngest and smallest branch of the military, is emerging as a critical enabler for the Pentagon’s warfighting capabilities.
“What was once a complementary space architecture is today the central nervous system of joint operations. It used to be that space capabilities were interesting, important, more so maybe to the commercial side, and maybe the warfighting side. And now we’ve gotten to a point where the Space Force is a critical part of the kill chains.” BGen. Robert Hutt
The Space Force is about one-tenth the size of the Marine Corps. However a significant shift that we’ve seen over the last several years is that now the Space Force is a thing.
The future budget outlook for the next five years is flat due to overall spending constraints. This means the Space Force will have to make tough choices.
Of the $29.4B requested for the Space Force for FY25, $23B goes toward RDT&E.
SATCOM is a Big Foundational Item - $5B in FY25.
SDA taps Millennium Space Systems to build experimental FOO Fighter Satellites
The systems will be equipped with fire control-quality sensors to address advanced missile threats such as hypersonic weapons.
Millennium Space Systems will build eight satellites for the SDA’s prototype constellation that aims to provide warfighters with next-generation missile tracking and fire-control capabilities
The agency awarded the Boeing subsidiary an other transaction authority contract worth up to $414M to build and deliver the platforms
They will be part of the Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture’s (PWSA) Fire-control On Orbit-support-to-the-war Fighter (FOO Fighter) program.
The constellation is slated to be launched into orbit during the 1Q FY27.
“The FOO Fighter program will provide an operational demonstration of fire control efforts separate from, but complementary to, our missile warning/missile tracking and missile defense efforts already underway in the tranches. We look forward to working with Millennium, a new teammate in the expanding marketplace of performers innovating to deliver the PWSA for the warfighter.” SDA Director Derek Tournear
Our Take:
Related articles: Millennium wins ‘FOO Fighter’ contract for SDA missile tracking and ‘The One’: Millennium wins ‘FOO Fighter’ missile defense satellite program
Space Acquisitions Chief Wants More Authority to Blacklist Contractors
Frank Calvelli wants authority to effectively blacklist underperforming defense contractors - an ability that now resides with Lt Gen Philip Garrant.
FY18 NDAA mandated the creation of a Contractor Responsibility Watch List (CRWL) designed to allow Space Systems Command to hold companies accountable for poor performance and cost overruns.
Contracting officials are barred from awarding new contracts or extending options on existing deals with a firm placed on the list.
Space Systems Command has never confirmed use of the CRWL.
Calvelli promoted the use of the tool by acquisition officers - listing contractor accountability as a key tenet for running successful space acquisition programs.
“Take corrective action and consider all tools available for poor performers, including loss of fee, use of the CRWL and, if necessary, stopping a program. Industry works for you, so be a demanding customer.”
Our Take: It’s logical that companies who underperform and overrun costs should not be rewarded with future contracts but is it realistic? Given ATLAS (Space Command and Control), GPS OCX and GPS MGUE are the programs that have dramatically overrun on cost and schedule, would Space Force blacklist L3Harris, Raytheon, and BAE the contractors on those programs and if so for how long? RTX has already pivoted from being a prime on SDA contracts.
The question then is if this ‘stick approach’ with industry will serve as a new incentive that drives corrective action or if it pushes one more prime out of the business entirely.
Does a company at risk of being on the list focus more corporate resources and talent to address the issues on a contract?
Does it drive more realistic proposals when bidding on contracts to avoid the potential downstream consequences of an unrealistic low bid contract?
How does it drive the competitive landscape in niche areas were there’s only a few or one vendors to provide a capability?
Given past performance is a criteria in most source selections, one would expect a poor performing company would already be less competitive in future contracts. An alternative tack here is to examine the common traits of high performing space companies, to include the acquisition and contracting elements, to see what other factors may be in play and how those traits and approaches can be used to improve companies that are struggling in space acquisition. We would surmise that the Space Force bears some blame in these failures - so this could also be an opportunity to improve Space Force acquisition approaches.
Overhead Persistent Infrared (OPIR) Future Operationally Resilient Ground Evolution (FORGE) Operationally Accepted
SSC’s Space Sensing PEO delivered the first of two software deliveries to operations in the OPIR Battlespace Awareness Center (OBAC) at Buckley SFB, CO.
Delivery of the FORGE framework to the OBAC provides increased cyber resilience, and enhanced mission applications to operators.
OBAC operations on FORGE bolster the OPIR battlespace awareness and technical intelligence missions with significant cyber-security improvements and enhanced missile detection and tracking.
The operational trial period preparing for this delivery provided opportunities to significantly stress the FORGE framework with real-world events.
The framework performed in family with the legacy system, enabling the battlespace awareness and technical intelligence mission as the OBAC’s operational baseline.
Proven sustainment of mission capability on the FORGE framework is essential to ensure coordination of a successful defense against threats around the world.
“Our Nation’s ability to quickly sense and make sense of OPIR observations is crucial in maintaining decision-making advantage against adversarial threats and their advanced missile technologies.” Col. Robert Davis, PEO Space Sensing
Monitoring the Heavens: Space Force Has 1,000 ‘Priority Targets,’ 600 Sensors
“Besides tracking adversary satellites, sometimes I want to be looking at my own object to see if anything's going on, right?” Maj. Gen. Gregory Gagnon, DCSO for intelligence
Space Force is keeping a very close eye on about 1,000 satellites — both those owned by adversaries and some US birds that might be threatened by adversaries — via a much expanded network of radars and telescopes around the globe.
US space domain awareness (SDA) capabilities have grown substantially since the Space Force was stood up in December 2019.
We are now orchestrating the collection on about 1,000 priority satellites out of 9,500 in space, with 600 apertures around the world in four or five different phenomenologies.
The 600 sensor systems now being tapped include systems owned by commercial and allied partners that are feeding information into the Space Force’s Unified Data Library (UDL).
During its early days, the Space Force was putting out warnings about satellite maneuvers at a rate of about six or seven per month. It now is issuing some 11,000 “maneuver alerts” every month that are generated both by Guardians and trained personnel in 11 other countries.
Lessons from the Cloud: Outsourcing and Integrating Commercial Space Services
The U.S. defense sector has spent the last two decades outsourcing and integrating commercial cloud capabilities into its vast IT architecture to realize the benefits of resilience, rapid innovation, and agile implementation.
Over this time, the DoD learned that realizing these benefits comes with enablers and tradeoffs and that, sometimes, a gradual evolution is the most practical way to achieve longer-term end goals.
Using lessons from commercial cloud integration, this paper proposes an integration maturity model to facilitate bringing commercial space services into DOD space architectures.
This framework builds on the success of a phased approach at various levels of outsourcing, with an understanding of the investments and risks inherent in each.
SpaceWERX, Aerospace Corporation collaborate to guide technologies through the 'Valley of Death'
SpaceWERX, the innovation arm of the U.S. Space Force and a unique division within AFWERX, has partnered with the Aerospace Corporation to establish a cutting-edge TRL bootcamp lab in El Segundo, CA
This collaborative effort aims to guide promising technologies through the Valley of Death the challenging transition phase that small businesses often face between receiving initial funding through SBIR or STTR contract awards and achieving full product readiness or commercialization.
The TRL bootcamp spans from two to six months and gives SpaceWERX partners access to Aerospace Corporation’s 100,000-square-foot laboratory and subject matter experts.
This collaboration will allow companies to test and mature their technologies in a state-of-the-art lab.
"In America, small businesses are often the source of ingenuity and innovation. At SpaceWERX, we actively invest in and nurture these ideas to foster their growth and development, with the goal of transitioning them into programs for both warfighters and the commercial market." Arthur Grijalva, SpaceWERX Director
SpaceX Making Progress on Starship In-Space Refueling Technologies
NASA says SpaceX is on track to demonstrate in-space refueling of Starship next year, a critical technology for returning humans to the lunar surface using that vehicle.
NASA deputy associate administrator for the Moon to Mars Program said SpaceX achieved one step towards refueling of Starship with a demonstration on the latest Starship test flight March 14.
SpaceX performed an in-flight propellant transfer demonstration under a NASA Tipping Point contract awarded in 2020.
SpaceX planned to transfer at least 10 metric tons of liquid oxygen from a header tank to the main tank within the Starship upper stage while in space.
“Full & rapid reusability of booster & ship and orbital refilling of ship are the two fundamental technologies we aim to solve by the end of next year,. Those are the critical pieces necessary to make life multiplanetary.” Elon Musk
Two Giants in the Satellite Telecom Industry Join Forces to Counter Starlink
SES is buying Intelsat, the world's first commercial satellite operator, for $3.1B.
Facing competition from Starlink and other emerging satellite broadband networks, the two companies that own most of the traditional commercial communications spacecraft in GEO announced plans to join forces.
The acquisition will create a combined company boasting a fleet of some 100 multi-ton satellites in GEO orbit, a ring of spacecraft located more than 22,000 miles over the equator. This will be more than twice the size of the fleet of the next-largest commercial geostationary satellite operator.
The problem is that demand is waning for communication services through large GEO satellites.
Satellites in LEO offer some advantages over GEO satellites.
Because they are closer to users on the ground, LEO satellites provide signals with lower latency. The satellites for these constellations can be mass-produced at relatively low cost compared to a single GEO satellite, which often costs $250M or more to build and launch.
SES and Intelsat have 13 new satellites on order, including six GEO spacecraft and seven broadband MEO satellites. Intelsat also brings to the table access to OneWeb's LEO constellation.
Army
Here’s When the Army Will Pick Next Long-Range Spy Plane
The Army will choose who is to integrate its long-range, high-speed spy plane this summer, a major step in its effort to overhaul existing fixed-wing aircraft that perform ISR missions.
The Army plans to retire roughly 70 aircraft — its entire ISR fleet — as it brings on the High Accuracy Detection and Exploitation System (HADES) that will be able to rapidly deploy and provide deep-sensing capabilities.
The Army is using a large-cabin business jet — the Bombardier Global 6500 — to serve as the airframe for the spy plane.
Competitors expect the Army to choose the team that will integrate sensors onto the business jet around late June or early July.
An L3Harris, MAG Aerospace, and Leidos team is competing against Sierra Nevada Corp. All four companies are involved in ISR fixed-wing prototype efforts with the Army.
The Army has spent more than five years assessing ISR fixed-wing prototypes using high-speed jets to inform the HADES program.
Combined, Artemis and Ares have flown more than 1,000 sorties.
They fly roughly 10-hour missions and average 20 sorties a month.
Our Take: We hope the HADES program office have collaborated with those involved in Joint STARS Recap program to understand lessons learned to shape strategies.
Army Getting Extra Funding from Multiple Sources to Accelerate LASSO Kamikaze Drone Program
The Low Altitude Stalking and Strike Ordnance program is intended to beef up the Army's arsenal of loitering munitions.
“That was part of our request was additional funding for those munitions as part of answering a EUCOM JUON. They fully funded that in the supplemental. That, plus the funding we had ourselves, plus help from our friends at OSD in Replicator … moves us way further down the line to just getting into larger-scale production than we would have been otherwise this year. We’re north of $100M if you add it all together.” Doug Bush
The extra money for the loitering munitions — also known as kamikaze drones or one-way attack drones — is coming from the national security supplemental.
The Army chose AeroVironment’s Switchblade 600 for the first increment of LASSO. However, it doesn’t intend for it to be a winner-take-all program for industry.
LASSO weapons are part of the Army’s vision for a family of low-altitude UAS that are semi-autonomous (human-in-the-loop) that improves the Infantry Brigade Combat Team lethality in terms of stand-off and destruction against dismounted formations, armored vehicles, and tanks.
Looking ahead as part of its regular budget submission, the service is asking lawmakers for an additional $120.6M to procure LASSO production systems in FY25, including 54 fire control units, 434 all-up rounds and 144 reconnaissance, surveillance and target acquisition components.
Navy
Almost All Navy Shipbuilding is Hopelessly Behind Schedule
The Navy is in trouble.
It has too few ships to do the jobs it is expected to do and not enough money to build new vessels. But it gets worse: It is also handicapped by a civilian ship-building industry that makes promises it knows it cannot keep.
Two weeks ago, the Navy announced that all of its major shipbuilding programs would be delayed — by years.
The first of ten new Columbia-class nuclear ballistic submarines is 12 to 16 months behind schedule.
The aircraft carrier Enterprise is 18 to 26 months late.
The Virginia attack-class submarine is two years behind.
And the Navy’s newest class of ships, a guided missile frigate called the Constellation, is already a full three years behind schedule.
How could a project fall so far behind schedule so quickly? One reason is that the Navy gave the OK to begin construction when the design was only 80% complete. This is a recurring problem for the Navy.
Another part is the unhealthy co-dependence between the sea service and the defense industry. Shipbuilders blame Congress for stop-and-go-funding of various defense initiatives; cite the difficulty in attracting and retaining a qualified work force; and point out conflicting priorities.
There are five reforms that could help break its awful tradition of delay and overrun.
Hold people accountable — really accountable.
Impose consequential damages.
Outsource construction to some foreign shipyards.
We must end the 80% go-trigger.
Civilian defense contractors need more skin in the game.
Naval Budgetary Constraints Stoke Congressional Concern Over Fleet Capabilities and Allies' Confidence
The Navy has outlined a plan for FY25 that has sparked significant debate among Congress members due to its potential impact on the naval shipbuilding industrial base and international partnerships.
The budget proposes the acquisition of six battle force ships, a figure overshadowed by the decommissioning of 19, and most notably, reduces the usual procurement of two Virginia-class submarines to a single vessel.
As it stands, the industry is constructing Virginia-class submarines at an approximate rate of 1.3 boats annually.
Navy officials defend the FY25 proposal, citing a backlog at General Dynamics Electric Boat and HII’s Newport News Shipbuilding to justify the reduced procurement.
They posit that an infusion of multi-billion dollar funding into the submarine industrial base will avert supplier disruptions.
Rep. Joe Courtney (D-CT) contested the Navy’s projections voicing concerns about the potential withdrawal of $1B from the program and questioning the benefits for the wider range of companies within the industrial base.
Addressing the submarine industrial base, the Navy has yet to provide a detailed account of its planned usage for the over $17B allocated for the FYDP across maintenance, new production, and public shipyard infrastructure improvements.
DON Enterprise IT Service Designation for Naval Identity Services
Navy CIO Jane Rathbun and Navy SAE Nickolas Guertin formally designate Naval Identity Services (NIS) as the Navy Enterprise IT Service for Identity, Credential, and Access Management (ICAM). Applicability of this designation includes but is not limited to the following:
All unclassified ashore Defense Business Systems.
All unclassified ashore enterprise network environments.
All unclassified ashore Excepted Network environments will evaluate the use of NIS for all applicable user (vice operator), maintenance, and privileged access accounts. If use of NIS is technically feasible, then it must be implemented.
Why the US Will Stay Dominant in Undersea Warfare
Paul Dibb and Richard Brabin-Smith
A number of commentators in Australia have lately made rash pronouncements about the demise of US submarines, alleging that innovative technologies will make the vessels vulnerable. Others have been arguing that US nuclear-powered submarines are now noisier than their Chinese counterparts and will be easily detectable by China.
The fact is that the U.S. has been so far ahead in submarine technology and secure underwater operations over the past 50-plus years that its submarines are virtually undetectable by either China or Russia.
In the Cold War, US attack submarines (SSNs) tailed Soviet ballistic–missile firing submarines (SSBNs) at close quarters without being detected. There is every reason to believe that the same applies these days to China’s SSBNs.
It is our view that China’s SSBNs are so easily tracked by US SSNs that China’s allegedly survivable second-strike nuclear capability is at high risk.
In brief, the quietness of US submarines and the sophistication of their operations are legendary.
The reason for this is that for more than half a century the U.S. has persistently poured vast amounts of R&D into superior underwater warfare technology.
While both Russia and China are making progress towards quieter submarine operations, the U.S. Navy continues to invest huge amounts in ensuring that its submarines remain at the absolute forefront of hard-to-detect operations under the world’s oceans.
So, when we take delivery of our three Virginia–class SSNs from the US, we can be confident that they will be both highly effective and difficult to counter. This is why China is so angry about the prospect of our acquiring them.
Marine Corps in Nascent Phases of CCA Drone Development
“I think we really still need to explore what the future concept of CCA means for the Marine Corps as a whole.” Col. Nathan Marvel, Director RCO and S&T in MCWL
The Marine Corps is still in the early stages of understanding how CCA will be used by the force, with current efforts focused on experimenting with some platforms and ensuring interoperability with the other services.
In 2023, the Marine Corps entered a tri-service agreement with the Air Force and Navy to standardize a handful of components of their respective CCA drones — envisioned as robotic wingmen that fly alongside and augment the capabilities of manned aircraft.
To inform its campaign of learning, the service is gearing up for some demonstrations with both large and small unmanned platforms in partnership with OSD(R&E).
As part of the collaboration agreement on CCAs, the Air Force, Navy and Marine Corps have agreed to a common aircraft architecture, communications links, autonomy architecture, and ground-control segments.
The goal is to give each service the flexibility to pursue drones that meet the unique requirements for their respective missions, while also ensuring that they are interoperable with each other — possibly allowing for one service to control another’s CCA.
Marine Special Operators are Using Fiction to Envision the Future
Short stories by Marine Raiders are driving discussions about the evolution of MARSOC through 2040.
Marine Forces Special Operations Command are using fictional vignettes of technological advancements to peer into the future.
Fictional intelligence (FICINT) stories, as defined by Ghost Fleet and Burn-In authors Peter Singer and August Cole, represent a way to envision future scenarios with operationally-informed fiction writing. Our command worked with both authors—known for galvanizing discussions about change within the DoD—to mentor current Marine Raiders in publishing three FICINT stories that have already helped drive discussion on the evolution of MARSOC into 2040.
Even as we provide solutions for today’s challenges, our Marine Raiders continue to evolve from the strategic vision laid out in MARSOF 2030 towards the ever-increasing strategic and operational challenges anticipated in the following decade. It is for this reason that we turned to FICINT writing.
Our short stories center around practical applications and lethal and non-lethal effects in strategic competition and crisis, and help us envision the types of people, capabilities, dependencies, and interactions that will be required of future Raider formations.
Our Take: Highly recommend reading Ghost Fleet and Burn-In and leveraging FICINT across all Services and domains to drive critical thinking on future operations, technologies, and capabilities.
New Tech Aims to Make Marines More Lethal Shooters
Marines might soon see some new, high-tech tools to help them become more lethal shooters.
Top leaders in weapons training and marksmanship shared a series of technologies that the service is experimenting with that would give Marines more accurate and realistic ways to practice shooting while also instantly gathering data on how they’re performing and how to improve.
A 2018 Operational Analysis Directorate study showed that Marines in combat in Iraq and Afghanistan only had a 30% chance of making a lethal hit on a target if the target or Marine was moving, if there were multiple targets, or if the target was at an unknown distance.
The new tech that Marines are experimenting with aims to tighten shot groups and speed up Marine shooting to make it more lethal.
Much of that is coming in the form of making more training options off the range in weapons drills and simulators.
Other efforts include more accurate data collection and real-time feedback for shooters to adjust their technique.
The package of tools includes the Mantis X10 and Unit 4 equipment that can be inserted into an M4 or M27 and allow users to practice dry fire, use a laser and feel recoil without using live rounds.
The Corps is looking at a radar-based system that also would measure shooting for the rifle qualification. If adopted, it would fully digitize rife qualification.
Fourth Estate
DISA Unveils Strategic Plan for Next Five Years
The document lists four strategic imperatives that are overarching and important functions the agency must perform, each consisting of more specific operational imperatives. They include:
Operate and secure the DISA portion of the DOD Information Network
Support strategic command, control and communications
Optimize the network
Operationalize data
Additionally, the plan outlines eight goals that provide areas of transformation the agency is focused on over the next five years. They include:
The defense information system network: By 2030 DISA has a globally accessible, software defined, transport environment that is unconstrained by bandwidth and impervious to denial or disruption.
Hybrid cloud environment: By 2030 DISA is operating a resilient, globally accessible hybrid cloud environment.
National leadership command capabilities: By 2030 DISA has modernized its portion of the NLCC fabric to enable national leadership and strategic coordination between allies and partners.
Joint and coalition warfighting tools: By 2030 DISA has delivered the right suite of capabilities to enable joint and coalition warfighting and has produced data standards for interoperability of IT solutions.
Consolidated network: By 2030 DISA has consolidated DAFAs and CCMDs into a common IT environment that offers seamless access to information at all classification levels.
Zero-trust tools: By the fourth quarter of fiscal 2027 DISA’s portion of the DODIN complies with the ZT reference architecture.
Data management: By 2030 DISA has a modern data platform for its defensive cyber and network operations data and has implemented standards for data management.
Workforce: By 2030 DISA will continue to upskill its workforce to remain “lethal” in the IT environment.
How TRANSCOM Transformed to Rapidly Adapt as Things Change Around the World
With digital dashboards and analytics tools that integrate real-time military data and depict operational assets and potential threats, U.S. Transportation Command now has unprecedented visibility into DoD weapons and personnel.
The goal is ensuring that command officials have the right data, at the right time — and that they can understand and trust — in order to make decisions.
Around 2018, the command started to fully grasp the emerging power of “big data analytics” that could impact high-level decision-making.
For the first about two years, that journey was not really that good.
Leadership was buying in, and the command began to see investments and resourcing, but the CDO just couldn’t get on the right track to deliver.
The command then pivoted to procuring its own one-stop environment through the Defense Department’s big data platform for advanced analytics — Advana.
With the dashboards now in front of military leadership, they can show: “These are the missions that are expected today, over the next 96 hours, the next week, these are the high priority missions, and then these are the ones that we can expect either on time or delays due to X,Y, Z factors.”
“The CDAO provides Advana as a platform-as-a-service. But what we do is we pay for our own community space — Pegasus. If you’re familiar with Jupiter, for the Navy, it’s the exact same thing that this is for Transcom. There’s eight or nine of them now that are out there.” Maj. David Costanzo, Transcom’s Operations Integration division
International
US Pacific commander Says China is Pursuing ‘Boiling Frog’ Strategy
ADM John Aquilino accuses Beijing of gradually raising pressure in South China Sea.
Aquilino said that during his three years as INDOPACOM commander, China has increased its pace of military development and matched its growing capabilities with more destabilising behaviour.
The most nerve-racking incident during his command was around the time of Pelosi’s visit, partly because China misinterpreted the trip as an escalatory change in US policy. At the time, there were calls on Chinese social media for the PLA to shoot down Pelosi’s plane.
Chinese warplanes now routinely fly over the median line in the Taiwan Strait, which previously acted as a buffer between the sides. More recently, China’s coast guard has also become more assertive around the Taiwanese islands of Kinmen and Matsu.
The “best example” of China’s coercive activity was around the Second Thomas Shoal, a reef inside the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone.
Aquilino said he was concerned about other threats, including North Korea, which launched more missiles in 2023 than its previous cumulative total. He was paying close attention to the co-operation between North Korea and Russia and deepening ties between China and Russia which he stressed was incredibly concerning.
“There needs to be a continual description of China’s bad behaviour that is outside legal international norms. And that story has to be told by all the nations in the region. Beijing was engaged in a “might equals right” strategy throughout the region.” ADM John Aquilino
“The ability to prevent this conflict will require a sense of urgency and speed in the delivery of our new modernization capabilities and our posture initiatives.”
Japan Hastens Pursuit of Unmanned Ground Vehicles for its Military
Japan’s recent contracts for unmanned ground vehicles awarded to international vendors are a sign of how the government plans to invest more heavily in robots to support its ground troops.
Japan is trailing behind neighbors like China and South Korea in the application of military unmanned systems.
Negative demographic trends are also spurring a desire to catch up as the country’s population is aging and shrinking, limiting the pool of candidates for military service.
On April 8, Rheinmetall announced a multimillion-dollar deal for three Mission Master SP 8x8 unmanned ground vehicles, or UGVs.
On April 16, Estonia-based company Milrem was awarded a contract for three THeMIS tracked UGVs for trials by the Japan Ground Self-Defense Force (JGSDF).
The Mission Masters will be delivered early next year, the THeMIS vehicles will be delivered this year and three Vision 60 quadrupeds from US-based Ghost Robotics are also expected to be ordered this year.
When asked why UGVs are being acquired from foreign companies rather than Japanese vendors, Japanese defense spokesperson listed factors such as performance requirements, costs and maintenance.
Our Take: We applaud the Japanese for not imposing the myriad of “Buy American” burdens that acquisition officials in the U.S. labor under when it comes to finding the best global solution, not just the one in your own country. This truly open acquisition strategy, along with the portfolio approach they seem to be using, is likely to result in positive outcomes for the Japanese in their unmanned goals.
Is State Dept.’s AUKUS Trade Certification Delay a Sign of Choppy Waters Ahead?
The US State Department this month declined to certify that the United Kingdom and Australia had “comparable” arms control practices, meaning they’re currently not eligible for some key defense trade exemptions.
While government officials painted the decision as little more than a procedural bump in the road for the budding AUKUS trilateral security arrangement, an industry advocate, analysts and some American lawmakers said it may signal less-than-smooth waters ahead for a critical multi-national project.
The tenor of reaction in Australia and in the United States was best described as worried optimism about the effects the delay would have on the two-track plan for Australia.
“The legislation had the long-standing poison pill of State certifying comparable systems. So, despite the legislation seemingly doing the right thing, there are those in Congress who knew this would complicate matters and potentially derail AUKUS.” Bill Greenwalt
“This negative certification is very unfortunate, and I am perplexed as to why it was not given to our two closest partners. Because of that, our security efforts will continue to be hindered by International Traffic in Arms Regulation (ITAR).” Rep. Michael McCaul
Our Take: After this article was published, the State Department did release its list of proposed ITAR exemptions. While this is a step in the right direction, the exhaustive list of items still prohibited are likely to cause problems in the future - especially when paired with exceptions from the AUS and UK governments. One ironic add to the list is the manufacturing know-how for building submarines - which was the whole point of AUKUS in the first place. Presumably that one will have to come off the list at some point.
Denmark Increases Defense Spending in View of Russian Long-Term War
Denmark will raise its defense spending by an additional $5.1 billion over the next four years in order to speed up investments in military capabilities, as the government has warned that Russia is readying for a long-term war.
Denmark borders the Baltic and North seas along its 8,750km of shoreline, which could be vulnerable in the event of NATO-Russia tensions in the region.
The additional funds will go to reinforcing the Army’s 1st heavy brigade, which is Denmark’s fore package assigned to the NATO Response Force.
It will also support acquiring more land-based air defense systems and bolstering the Navy’s anti-submarine warfare capabilities.
“The security situation in Europe has worsened since we decided on the Danish Defense Agreement last summer. Russia is preparing for a long-term war and could pose a potential threat to NATO allies within a few years.” Danish Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen
Britain Could Soon Lose Control of its Defence Industry
The UK plans to hike its defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2030, amounting to £87 billion a year.
According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (Sipri), world military spending grew 7% in 2023, rising for the ninth consecutive year.
This looks very likely to continue, not least because it takes time to ramp up production.
An important change relates to the equipment that militaries will use in future.
On the one hand, we’re seeing the development of what are sometimes called Augustine weapons systems, referring to new generations of equipment that are more complex and hi-tech than existing ones.
At the same time, you’ve got the development of very cheap but quite capable drones. For example, you can have a drone that goes out to sea and does aerial reconnaissance surveillance, staying there for hours without a manned crew.
At the moment, Europe is developing two different advanced combat aircraft to replace Eurofighter Typhoons - but will be hard for both to get to cost-effective numbers given the relatively low order quantities.
France, Germany and Spain are developing one known as the Future Combat Air System (FCAS)
Britain, Japan and Italy are producing a rival called the Tempest.
It’s therefore likely that the trend will continue of having a smaller number of bigger defence firms.
Britain’s aerospace industry is dominated by BAE Systems and Rolls-Royce and you could see in the near future those firms merging with Airbus, or moving in an American direction and merging with a Boeing or a Lockheed.
This means that you will increasingly see foreign firms playing a larger role in national defence, both in the UK and elsewhere.
Our Take: While we certainly don’t want to see any more mergers that make defense companies even bigger and more monopolistic, the force for allies to work more closely together on systems to make them more cost-effective is a positive. The F-35 (for all its foibles) has also brough a degree of interoperability among allies that could never have been achieved as quickly - so this trend will hopefully improve the ability for different air forces and armies to work together if a conflict arises.
Soaring US Munitions Demand Strains Support for Israel, Ukraine, Taiwan
The U.S. has transferred tens of thousands of its bombs and shells to Israel since Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack, but it hasn’t given Israel everything it wants. That’s because the U.S. military lacks the capacity to provide some of the weapons Israel requested.
The U.S. assesses the health of its own inventories before sending weapons abroad and at times, those stocks don’t have any margin — and in some cases, the U.S. is even dipping below minimum inventory requirements.
DoD already struggled to maintain robust munitions levels in the decades before the recent wars in the Middle East and Europe.
The shipment of arms to Israel, Ukraine and Taiwan has placed intense pressure on the Pentagon’s inventory, forcing it to make challenging risk management assessments.
A wargame conducted for the House Committee on the Chinese Communist Party last year found the U.S. would run out of long-range, precision-guided munitions in less than a week in a fight with China over Taiwan.
Allied demand for U.S. weapons is helping to set a more consistent demand signal and pump resources into lagging munitions production lines that will support expanded domestic munitions capacity in the long-run.
“Pre-Ukraine, we had munitions requirements that were in almost every important case — particularly for the Indo-Pacific — not even close to being met. For the most important [Indo-Pacific] munitions, we haven’t hit the total munitions requirement.” congressional staffer
Ukraine Appears to Be Using Light Planes Converted into Reusable Bomber Drones
Ukraine is converting light aircraft into kamikaze drones in what might be a first and is an adaptation that Ukrainian operators taking their First-Person View skills up a level.
“Photos have appeared that 100% confirm the theory that [Ukraine] began to use light aircraft to attack Russia. As you can see, this aircraft is equipped with optics and an aircraft high-explosive bomb is attached to it. The space intended for pilots has been converted and contains electronics.” Telegram channel communication
77% of Young Taiwanese Willing to Fight for Country
As China continues to build its forces and U.S.-China tensions rise, Taiwan has lengthened its compulsory military service from four months to one year in 2024.
However, it still needs to find new ways to recruit since it only has 169,000 soldiers to China's two million.
In Taiwan, 77% answered “yes” to the question, while 23% said “no.”
In the Philippines, 76% expressed willingness to fight, while 24% did not.
China, had a high percentage of 88.6% answering yes, and only 10.2% selecting no.
Japan surprisingly had 49% say no and only 13% say yes.
How China's New Fujian Aircraft Carrier Could Challenge the US Navy
Once China has all three carriers operating in a military capacity, China will boast the second-largest aircraft-carrying fleet in the world behind the US - and the fourth vessel, rumored to be a nuclear-powered variant - is already under development.
Congress
Wittman warns of ‘wasting a year’ with Pentagon’s industrial strategy
Rep. Rob Wittman (R-VA) said that the Pentagon’s plan to implement a new strategy for the defense industry may not make it into Congress’ defense bill this year due to months of delay.
The Pentagon rolled out the strategy in January, saying the document would help sync its work with the defense industry while facing a surge in demand. The plan was mostly a list of two dozen recommendations — from increasing stockpiles to training more skilled workers.
A detailed plan on how to implement it would come in March, now the DoD’s head of industrial base policy, said it would arrive in the summer.
The House NDAA will come to the floor in the second week of June, which will be before lawmakers get the plan. That means the only chance the strategy makes it into legislation this year is if the Senate’s bill includes some of the recommended steps and then they make it into the version that both chambers pass.
House Lawmaker Hopes to Resuscitate DoD’s Venture Fellowship Program
A program that embeds DoD employees at tech startups and venture capital firms may not be wholly dead just yet.
At the Hill and Valley Forum on Capitol Hill, Rep. Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y., announced plans to push for the creation of a venture fellowship program inside the Pentagon’s Office of Strategic Capital through this year’s NDAA.
The proposed office would fill the gap left by the recent dissolution of the Defense Ventures Program run by the Air Force’s AFWERX innovation arm and Shift, a firm that links DoD civilians and military personnel with job opportunities in the private sector.
AFWERX spokesman Rob Bardua told Defense One in March that the Air Force was forced to terminate the program due to funding constraints, which prevented the service from awarding a contract option that would keep the effort going through January 2025.
In a March post on LinkedIn, Shift CEO Mike Slagh said that despite efforts to find other investors after AFWERX funding dried up, Shift “ran out of time and came up short,” forcing the company to have to shut down and liquidate its assets.
Congress Gives the Arsenal of Democracy a Boost
Some experts wonder if it’s enough to respond to China, Russia, and terror threats at the same time. The U.S. defense industrial base just got a $20B shot in the arm from the national security supplemental bills passed by Congress last week.
“We have begun—begun—to rebuild the industrial base with the supplementals. Calling it a wartime footing, no.” Dr. Bill LaPlante
At the peak of World War II, the U.S. was spending nearly 40% of its GDP on defense. It’s down to less than a tenth of those spending levels now.
The jolt will allow the U.S. to surge artillery production and solve key bottlenecks.
One is the production of solid rocket motors used for everything from Javelins to intercontinental ballistic missiles.
it provides money from the Defense Production Act to build out a second tier of rocket motor suppliers, including X-Bow Systems; Ursa Major; and Adranos which was recently bought out by defense technology company Anduril.
There’s also money to build factories for ball bearings, printed circuit boards, and other subcomponents for the $311B that the Pentagon wants to spend in the upcoming year to develop new weapons.
Podcasts, Books, and Videos
The evolution of Hacking 4 Defense, The Daily Scoop
Shannon Clark on Scaling AI, SCSP Podcast
Pushing the Boundaries of Security and Complaince for Warfighters w/Matt Conner, All Quiet on the Second Front
Space Power: The Biggest Enemy to National Security Are Continuing Resolutions, The Downlink
I Think There’s Trouble Brewin’ w/Dr. James Giordano and Dr. James Caton, The Convergence
V-22, Laser Comms in Space, and Project Convergence, National Defense
Drones in Ukraine w/ Dr. Stacie Pettyjohn, The Merge
Data Analytics to Enhance Decision-Making in Defense Acquisitions w/ Louis Bergeron, FedGov Today
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Margaret Boatner, Jennifer Swanson, Leo Garciga, Bill Hepworth
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